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Efficient sophisticated markets -- which the BTC markets are quite close to being now with as they have derivatives, wide accessibility, years of maturity -- do
by solve 11y ago
Efficient sophisticated markets -- which the BTC markets are quite close to being now with as they have derivatives, wide accessibility, years of maturity -- do not simply reflect present demand, but instead the current best prediction of cumulative total future value.
Adoption demand has overall followed a rather clear and steady trend, so it's a bit hard to say that there's anything very unpredictable going on here.
- sanswork 11y ago1. BTC is far from a sophisticated market. 2. Go look at any predictions thread on /r/bitcoin from 6/12/18 months ago and tell me our current position is predictable.
- solve 11y agoYou take random posts on /r/bitcoin as serious predictions? Looks like I've found another problem. RE sophisticated market - Yes, BTC is now far closer to a sophisticated market, which is mostly reflecting the consensus prediction of cumulative future value, instead of a totally unsophisticated market that fluctuates around purely based on present demand of people directly using the asset for non-investment purposes.
- sanswork 11y agoWell at least you're not trying to argue bitcoin is a sophisticated market anymore. Where do you get your serious predictions about bitcoins future? /r/bitcoin|/r/bitcoinmarkets|bitcointalk cover the vast majority of users actually involved in bitcoin regularly. >Adoption demand has overall followed a rather clear and steady trend Given that price has been dropping for 18 months are you saying that the clear and obvious trend is towards failure? Since the future is priced in?