5 ms·
> why these 'victories' aren't leading to increased prices Prices are incredibly increased, from the $0.0001 USD/BTC they used to be on the open markets. Your
by solve 11y ago
> why these 'victories' aren't leading to increased prices
Prices are incredibly increased, from the $0.0001 USD/BTC they used to be on the open markets.
Your statement shows that you completely misunderstand how markets work. Anything that can be predicted about the future, is already "priced in" -- (to the degree that it can be predicted by the best possible predictor and discounting risk. Also discounting any entity's willingness to burn substantial money to temporarily manipulate the market.)
In other words, things about the future that were easily predictable long ago would have changed the price long ago, not waiting until they happen.
And BTC's price did change long ago, incredibly!! More than 1000x change. And if it took you much longer than mid-2011 to predict all these things, then you're just incredibly too slow, and that's why you missed that big price increase.
- sanswork 11y ago>Prices are incredibly increased, from the $0.0001 USD/BTC they used to be on the open markets. Yes they increased a lot in the past. Then they started falling and they've been doing that for a year and a half now. >Your statement shows that you completely misunderstand how markets work. It's not my statement as I said it's an example of a common sentiment in the bitcoin community.
- ikeboy 11y agoThe rise to >$1000 was largely due to the "Willy" bot run by MtGox, not representing real demand.
- sanswork 11y agoAnd the drop from >$1000 was largely due to apathy and a lack of real demand.
- ikeboy 11y agoA lack of enough demand to maintain a $1000 price. If there was no real demand, the price would be close to zero now.
- sanswork 11y agoA lack of new demand then. The community is stagnant but they are certainly willing to continue buying in.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- solve 11y agoEfficient sophisticated markets -- which the BTC markets are quite close to being now with as they have derivatives, wide accessibility, years of maturity -- do not simply reflect present demand, but instead the current best prediction of cumulative total future value. Adoption demand has overall followed a rather clear and steady trend, so it's a bit hard to say that there's anything very unpredictable going on here.
- sanswork 11y ago1. BTC is far from a sophisticated market. 2. Go look at any predictions thread on /r/bitcoin from 6/12/18 months ago and tell me our current position is predictable.
- solve 11y agoYou take random posts on /r/bitcoin as serious predictions? Looks like I've found another problem. RE sophisticated market - Yes, BTC is now far closer to a sophisticated market, which is mostly reflecting the consensus prediction of cumulative future value, instead of a totally unsophisticated market that fluctuates around purely based on present demand of people directly using the asset for non-investment purposes.
- sanswork 11y agoWell at least you're not trying to argue bitcoin is a sophisticated market anymore. Where do you get your serious predictions about bitcoins future? /r/bitcoin|/r/bitcoinmarkets|bitcointalk cover the vast majority of users actually involved in bitcoin regularly. >Adoption demand has overall followed a rather clear and steady trend Given that price has been dropping for 18 months are you saying that the clear and obvious trend is towards failure? Since the future is priced in?
- celticninja 11y agoactually that is incorrect, that was suggested in the inital fall out of mt gox collapse, however further research indicates that willy was not responsible for the rise or at leats not for all of the rise. There is a good review of the transactions associated with the willy bot and a decent analysis of wat they think it was doing.
- ikeboy 11y agoCould you elaborate? The most recent report I've seen, http://blog.wizsec.jp/2015/02/mtgox-investigation-release.html http://blog.wizsec.jp/2015/02/mtgox-investigation-release.ht..., says: >Willy bought a very large amount of bitcoin on MtGox during the period of September 27 – November 30 during 2013 (and later, though the leaked logs end on this date), a total of over 250,000 BTC. There is a very high probability that this had a large effect on the price of bitcoin, opening up the possibility that this may have been a plan to manipulate the market rather than (or in addition to) fraudulently acquiring bitcoins. and >There are even some suspicious incidents where Willy becomes absent and soon afterwards the market "corrects" itself to a lower price level.
- celticninja 11y agoI stand corrected.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]