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So the concern is the economy slowing down due to the large number of current truck drivers who are going to be out of jobs in the near future. I don't expect t

by hspak 11y ago

So the concern is the economy slowing down due to the large number of current truck drivers who are going to be out of jobs in the near future. I don't expect there to be a sudden drop. First comes the autopilot trucks where they still need to be manned. Sure the drivers will likely take a hit in pay, they'll still have a job. Then comes the fully autonomous trucks, removing the drivers although. I see this being a gradual transition, not a cliff like the article mentions. "Basically, the only real barrier to the immediate adoption of self-driven trucks is purely legal in nature, not technical or economic." I feel like this is such a huge assumption considering any type of autonomous driving has not been seen use anywhere yet.

x0054 11y ago
> I feel like this is such a huge assumption considering any type of autonomous driving has not been seen use anywhere yet. It has, Google has openly admitted to have driven more than 100k miles fully autonomously. The technology IS here, it's going to be widespread in 15-20 years.
- tomcart 11y ago
  More than that, autonomous driving is being used increasingly in industries like mining: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/caterpillar-says-autonomous-trucks-are-not-just-about-cutting-jobs-20140924-10lb25.html http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/caterpil... The technology developed in these situations for fleeting etc. is just as likely to find its way into road going trucks as that from Google.
- prawn 11y ago
  Haven't Delphi auto-driven three cars across the US?
- gwern 11y ago
  Google's up to 1.7m miles, apparently; this came up earlier in discussions of the accident rate: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9526602 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9526602 (Always in motion, the future is...)
SixSigma 11y ago
Not to mention, a high proportion of the costs of the physical goods you consume are the transport costs. More than 1/3 of the transport costs are the driver. 300 million people will be better off. 10 million people lose out. On top of that, the demographic of truck drivers tends towards older male. There is already a problem.
tomjen3 11y ago
The thing is that once it makes sense to replace one (long-distance) truck driver with a machine it will make sense to replace most of them. That change could easily happen over a month (it may not happen for years, even after driverless carriages are technically feasible, because the economics aren't there) and since trucking is a commodity business market forces will force them to get driverless trucks quickly, after it becomes the economic choice.

by hspak 11y ago

x0054 11y ago

> I feel like this is such a huge assumption considering any type of autonomous driving has not been seen use anywhere yet. It has, Google has openly admitted to have driven more than 100k miles fully autonomously. The technology IS here, it's going to be widespread in 15-20 years.

tomcart 11y ago
More than that, autonomous driving is being used increasingly in industries like mining: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/caterpillar-says-autonomous-trucks-are-not-just-about-cutting-jobs-20140924-10lb25.html http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/caterpil... The technology developed in these situations for fleeting etc. is just as likely to find its way into road going trucks as that from Google.
prawn 11y ago
Haven't Delphi auto-driven three cars across the US?
gwern 11y ago
Google's up to 1.7m miles, apparently; this came up earlier in discussions of the accident rate: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9526602 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9526602 (Always in motion, the future is...)

SixSigma 11y ago

Not to mention, a high proportion of the costs of the physical goods you consume are the transport costs. More than 1/3 of the transport costs are the driver. 300 million people will be better off. 10 million people lose out. On top of that, the demographic of truck drivers tends towards older male. There is already a problem.

tomjen3 11y ago

The thing is that once it makes sense to replace one (long-distance) truck driver with a machine it will make sense to replace most of them. That change could easily happen over a month (it may not happen for years, even after driverless carriages are technically feasible, because the economics aren't there) and since trucking is a commodity business market forces will force them to get driverless trucks quickly, after it becomes the economic choice.