simple indicators of future success just might not exist There's another domain that struggles with this. Professional sports. I'm more familiar with the NFL,

simple indicators of future success just might not exist There's another domain that struggles with this. Professional sports. I'm more familiar with the NFL, but this applies to the NBA as well. There are countless "can't miss" 1st overall draft picks that are busts; there are undrafted players that make it into the hall of fame. hire people with at least some demonstrated aptitude and invest in them instead Certainly pro sports tries to do this, but some players are just more coach-able than others. Also, especially at the pro level, there's a certain very intangible "thing" that separates the merely good from the great. How do you coach for that?