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I'm genuinely curious. Let's say things had turned out slightly different, he'd been able to negotiate the deals with the banks that he needed (let's say he ha

I'm genuinely curious. Let's say things had turned out slightly different, he'd been able to negotiate the deals with the banks that he needed (let's say he had a Board Member who helped open a few doors, or perhaps a Sr. Executive who had deep experience with the banking industry/regulations, and could expedite) - and let's say that clinkle had taken off, and was generated sufficient revenue to be a $10B company. Would you still blame the investors, or would you be impressed by their willingness to take risk? From the New Yorker article on Marc: Each year, three thousand startups approach a16z with a “warm intro” from someone the firm knows. A16z invests in fifteen. Of those, at least ten will fold, three or four will prosper, and one might soar to be worth more than a billion dollars—a “unicorn,” in the local parlance. With great luck, once a decade that unicorn will become a Google or a Facebook and return the V.C.’s money a thousand times over: the storied 1,000x. A16Z invests in 15 companies/year, knowing ahead of time that ten of them will fold. Being able to predict the future is hard.

flylib 11y ago
A16Z invests in a lot more then 15 companies/year, that article is way off in that regard here is a tweet from dec 2014 where Chris Dixon (General Partner) said they did 30 seed deals last year adding up A, B, C, etc. they do closer to 50-100 https://twitter.com/cdixon/status/544570097465954304 https://twitter.com/cdixon/status/544570097465954304 crunchbase shows they have done 31 publicly known ones in 2015 so far https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/andreessen-horowitz/investments https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/andreessen-horowitz/...
downandout 11y ago
My point was that the odds of this particular individual pulling it off were near zero to start with. Calculated risks are fine. This "risk" had essentially no chance of success, both because the concept was not compelling, and because the founder was incredibly immature and had zero experience. For comparison - the odds were probably against Uber succeeding, but it had a compelling value proposition for its customers: with a few taps, you can summon transportation anywhere. What was the value proposition that Clinkle offered? There really wasn't one that I can see. NFC already existed when they came out, and users weren't going to care which technology actually transmitted their data. Uber was a calculated risk; Clinkle was just a blunder of an investment. It wasn't even a gamble; the term "gamble" implies that you have a chance of winning.

flylib 11y ago

A16Z invests in a lot more then 15 companies/year, that article is way off in that regard here is a tweet from dec 2014 where Chris Dixon (General Partner) said they did 30 seed deals last year adding up A, B, C, etc. they do closer to 50-100 https://twitter.com/cdixon/status/544570097465954304 https://twitter.com/cdixon/status/544570097465954304 crunchbase shows they have done 31 publicly known ones in 2015 so far https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/andreessen-horowitz/investments https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/andreessen-horowitz/...

downandout 11y ago

My point was that the odds of this particular individual pulling it off were near zero to start with. Calculated risks are fine. This "risk" had essentially no chance of success, both because the concept was not compelling, and because the founder was incredibly immature and had zero experience. For comparison - the odds were probably against Uber succeeding, but it had a compelling value proposition for its customers: with a few taps, you can summon transportation anywhere. What was the value proposition that Clinkle offered? There really wasn't one that I can see. NFC already existed when they came out, and users weren't going to care which technology actually transmitted their data. Uber was a calculated risk; Clinkle was just a blunder of an investment. It wasn't even a gamble; the term "gamble" implies that you have a chance of winning.