4 ms·

There was a NY times post here a little while ago showing the current unemployment rate broken down by age, gender, race, and education. Unsurprisingly, the di

There was a NY times post here a little while ago showing the current unemployment rate broken down by age, gender, race, and education. Unsurprisingly, the difference in education was enormous. It's not too large a logical jump to say that some of the existing unskilled jobs were waiting for automated replacement. Well, that's one of two options I'm pondering. The other is that the economy's split into a very literate, "wired", and economically-stable educated class, and a second "unwired" and economically-unstable class. I don't want to say illiterate as much as doesn't-read-terribly-much: television news, product information from salespeople, etc. People who phone or walk in for customer service, use cash and other forms of nonelectronic payment, shop nearly exclusively at brick-and-mortar stores, etc. Essentially, an entire, nearly-closed economy of people who both want human interaction for business and work as the human actors for the businesses that hire them. If we look at the economy through this dichotomy, it appears only one of the two fell.

jsm386 17y ago
That's the direct link: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/06/business/economy/unemployment-lines.html http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/06/business/econo...
anigbrowl 17y ago
You make a very good point. I am often surprised when reading non-tech discussion boards about just how many people are still on dialup, or dislike ATM/debit cards, and so on. A lot of these people are distinctly hostile to new technology, feeling variously that it steals jobs or employs planned obsolescence to make them spend more. While I think their worldview is fundamentally flawed, there are a lot of them, they're increasingly angry, and they vote. Just because they're on the internet doesn't mean they have the same kind of enthusiasm for technical progress that we do, far from it.
slyn 17y ago
I don't think the unemployment divide has much to do with technology. Imagine that the economy of every country in the world is a lake. The depth of the hole in which the water resides is roughly proportional to the population of a country, and the amount of water inside the hole is roughly proportional to the average persons quality of life in that country. America has a relatively high water mark compared to the rest of the world. When America opened trade with China, we essentially dug a hole between our lake and their lake. Because China's lake has such a low water mark, water from our lake (jobs basically) will flow to their lake until their lake and our lake are roughly at equilibrium. Same goes for India and the rest of the world we trade with globally. The lowest water (lowest paying, lowest education req jobs) flows over first, which is why lots of the manufacturing and call center type jobs went overseas first. The current downturn was likely caused by things not related to this flow, but as the recession makes its way through the economy it increases the flow as companies look for ways to cut costs. I would further the analogy but I don't really have time. End result is: More education = less likely to lose your job. What sector of the economy you are in has little to do with your actual job security.
jhancock 17y ago
I've noticed that WalMart has cut back on floor and checkout personnel. If I can't find something, I find a floor staff person and problem solved. These days, I can walk half the store looking for an employee. Same is true for HomeDepot, McDonalds, Kroger. These unskilled laborers were let go not because they didn't provide value, but because in lean times customers are willing to accept the inconvenience. They weren't and probably won't be replaced by automation. When the economy is strong again, customers will complain about such inconveniences and WalMart will be aggressively hiring again.
- natrius 17y ago
  I find your abundance of faith disturbing. I've seen several stores that have search kiosks in the pharmacy to help you find items. It's only a matter of time until retail customer service goes the knowledge base style of online customer service.
  - jhancock 17y ago
    I'm sure some will provide kiosks chasing after similar goals as with self-checkout. I don't think adoption will be complete during this down economic turn and it may be cheaper and more customer friendly to provide floor staff again once the economy improves. Sure this is mostly wishful thinking.
jjs 17y ago
> television news, product information from salespeople, etc. People who phone or walk in for customer service, use cash and other forms of nonelectronic payment, shop nearly exclusively at brick-and-mortar stores, etc. The elderly?

jsm386 17y ago

That's the direct link: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/06/business/economy/unemployment-lines.html http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/06/business/econo...

anigbrowl 17y ago

You make a very good point. I am often surprised when reading non-tech discussion boards about just how many people are still on dialup, or dislike ATM/debit cards, and so on. A lot of these people are distinctly hostile to new technology, feeling variously that it steals jobs or employs planned obsolescence to make them spend more. While I think their worldview is fundamentally flawed, there are a lot of them, they're increasingly angry, and they vote. Just because they're on the internet doesn't mean they have the same kind of enthusiasm for technical progress that we do, far from it.

slyn 17y ago

I don't think the unemployment divide has much to do with technology. Imagine that the economy of every country in the world is a lake. The depth of the hole in which the water resides is roughly proportional to the population of a country, and the amount of water inside the hole is roughly proportional to the average persons quality of life in that country. America has a relatively high water mark compared to the rest of the world. When America opened trade with China, we essentially dug a hole between our lake and their lake. Because China's lake has such a low water mark, water from our lake (jobs basically) will flow to their lake until their lake and our lake are roughly at equilibrium. Same goes for India and the rest of the world we trade with globally. The lowest water (lowest paying, lowest education req jobs) flows over first, which is why lots of the manufacturing and call center type jobs went overseas first. The current downturn was likely caused by things not related to this flow, but as the recession makes its way through the economy it increases the flow as companies look for ways to cut costs. I would further the analogy but I don't really have time. End result is: More education = less likely to lose your job. What sector of the economy you are in has little to do with your actual job security.

jhancock 17y ago

I've noticed that WalMart has cut back on floor and checkout personnel. If I can't find something, I find a floor staff person and problem solved. These days, I can walk half the store looking for an employee. Same is true for HomeDepot, McDonalds, Kroger. These unskilled laborers were let go not because they didn't provide value, but because in lean times customers are willing to accept the inconvenience. They weren't and probably won't be replaced by automation. When the economy is strong again, customers will complain about such inconveniences and WalMart will be aggressively hiring again.

natrius 17y ago
I find your abundance of faith disturbing. I've seen several stores that have search kiosks in the pharmacy to help you find items. It's only a matter of time until retail customer service goes the knowledge base style of online customer service.
- jhancock 17y ago
  I'm sure some will provide kiosks chasing after similar goals as with self-checkout. I don't think adoption will be complete during this down economic turn and it may be cheaper and more customer friendly to provide floor staff again once the economy improves. Sure this is mostly wishful thinking.

jjs 17y ago

> television news, product information from salespeople, etc. People who phone or walk in for customer service, use cash and other forms of nonelectronic payment, shop nearly exclusively at brick-and-mortar stores, etc. The elderly?