There are a couple of problems with the analysis you linked to, primarily that it doesn't differentiate between premeditated and unplanned crimes. It specifica

There are a couple of problems with the analysis you linked to, primarily that it doesn't differentiate between premeditated and unplanned crimes. It specifically mentions that "half of all state prisoners were under the influence of drugs or alcohol at the time of their offense." This article suggests that more carefully examining the way people interpret severity can demonstrate that in many cases, severity is an effective deterrent [http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1541-0072.2001.tb02112.x/abstract http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1541-0072.2001....]. I contend that cattle theft is typically planned in advance and not a spur-of-the-moment offense.