4 ms·

While I don't doubt things will move in this direction, dates like this seem extremely optimistic. Just speaking of the US, there are something like 250 millio

by abruzzi 11y ago

While I don't doubt things will move in this direction, dates like this seem extremely optimistic. Just speaking of the US, there are something like 250 million cars on the roads, and we buy cars at the rate of about 12-16 million a year. While I can see fully autonomous cars becoming available in the next decade, it will be some time before all manufacturers have refined enough systems, and legalization is in place, let alone mandating. Then you have the slow process of manual cars cycling out and getting replaced by autonomous vehicles. Another question is for the low income people that subsist on sub $1000 used cars, does a junker autonomous car continue to function, or are the poor now having to devote a significantly larger portion of their income to transportation? Then what happens to motorcyclists? I can't see them functioning autonomously. In some countries that would be a huge hit given the ubiquity of small displacement motorcycles. To be entirely honest, I don't expect to see the elimination of occupant driven motor vehicles in my lifetime.

spullara 11y ago
In a world with self-driving cars and a way to summon one at will, how many do you think we will need?
- malka 11y ago
  In a world where autonomous car are effectively autonomous on ALL roads, that could work. But we are really far from here. How does autonomous car fare when the infrastructure sucks ?
EvanAnderson 11y ago
I think the existing auto fleet can be overcome fairly easily, albeit by a company that enters the market in a position that's initially losing. The model I see that will remove individually-owned, occupant driven vehicles will some variation of: My company will purchase your auto and credit you some amount of haulage on my autocar network, and perhaps some cash. For the low income people using sub-$1,000 cars a token amount of credit will be sufficient. The real value for them will be the convenience and reliability of transport they get from my system. Imagine not losing your hard-won job because your "beater" car failed at an inopportune time. Imagine not having unexpected car expenses that make you choose between, say, food and transportation. The higher-end market will be a tougher sell, but there are likely productivity, personal time, and environmental impact arguments that can be made there. I'll sell your car (likely at a loss) in some area when I haven't achieved market penetration yet (or for salvage). Once you're bought-in to my network you might leave me for a competitor, but ideally I'll use regulation, contractual lock-in, and other tools to attempt to keep Customers tied to my product until I've recouped my initial investment. I think it could work. I don't particularly like it, but I think it has at least a non-zero possibility of happening.
- whatusername 11y ago
  Where do parents fit in this utopia of yours? I've got 2 car seats and a pram and some toys in my car in the driveway. Personally owned transport makes more sense for people who have to move things other than themselves and a laptop (tools, babies, etc)
  - EvanAnderson 11y ago
    Utopia? Did you read the last sentence of my comment? I think a self-driving car future is a future with disempowered individuals in a neo-feudal transportation world. It sounds terrible to me, but I think it's likely to happen (at least in the US). There are practical and economic advantages in that future and some large existing economic players who can profit from it. I'd tend agree with your comment in the short term. Moving my daughter's child safety car seat would be a pain, for sure. Longer-term I would expect to see modular standards emerge for child safety car seats. You lock your child's seat into the standardized base that's hiding under a seat cushion in the back of the car. There are already stroller / pram systems that incorporate the child safety car seat, so I could expect that market to boom, too. Moving things besides yourself is something a lot of people in urban areas already do with public transit. With a private autocar service it's more likely that you'd get more space than on a subway or bus, so I'd think it would be even easier to move more than just yourself. I would expect a rental option to let you keep the car with you, as opposed to it returning to the fleet when you reach your destination.

by abruzzi 11y ago

spullara 11y ago

In a world with self-driving cars and a way to summon one at will, how many do you think we will need?

malka 11y ago
In a world where autonomous car are effectively autonomous on ALL roads, that could work. But we are really far from here. How does autonomous car fare when the infrastructure sucks ?

EvanAnderson 11y ago

I think the existing auto fleet can be overcome fairly easily, albeit by a company that enters the market in a position that's initially losing. The model I see that will remove individually-owned, occupant driven vehicles will some variation of: My company will purchase your auto and credit you some amount of haulage on my autocar network, and perhaps some cash. For the low income people using sub-$1,000 cars a token amount of credit will be sufficient. The real value for them will be the convenience and reliability of transport they get from my system. Imagine not losing your hard-won job because your "beater" car failed at an inopportune time. Imagine not having unexpected car expenses that make you choose between, say, food and transportation. The higher-end market will be a tougher sell, but there are likely productivity, personal time, and environmental impact arguments that can be made there. I'll sell your car (likely at a loss) in some area when I haven't achieved market penetration yet (or for salvage). Once you're bought-in to my network you might leave me for a competitor, but ideally I'll use regulation, contractual lock-in, and other tools to attempt to keep Customers tied to my product until I've recouped my initial investment. I think it could work. I don't particularly like it, but I think it has at least a non-zero possibility of happening.

whatusername 11y ago
Where do parents fit in this utopia of yours? I've got 2 car seats and a pram and some toys in my car in the driveway. Personally owned transport makes more sense for people who have to move things other than themselves and a laptop (tools, babies, etc)
- EvanAnderson 11y ago
  Utopia? Did you read the last sentence of my comment? I think a self-driving car future is a future with disempowered individuals in a neo-feudal transportation world. It sounds terrible to me, but I think it's likely to happen (at least in the US). There are practical and economic advantages in that future and some large existing economic players who can profit from it. I'd tend agree with your comment in the short term. Moving my daughter's child safety car seat would be a pain, for sure. Longer-term I would expect to see modular standards emerge for child safety car seats. You lock your child's seat into the standardized base that's hiding under a seat cushion in the back of the car. There are already stroller / pram systems that incorporate the child safety car seat, so I could expect that market to boom, too. Moving things besides yourself is something a lot of people in urban areas already do with public transit. With a private autocar service it's more likely that you'd get more space than on a subway or bus, so I'd think it would be even easier to move more than just yourself. I would expect a rental option to let you keep the car with you, as opposed to it returning to the fleet when you reach your destination.