6 ms·

Now, I'm not saying it's aliens, but... Sadly, it's probably just a really interesting icy outcrop of some description. Current theories of Ceres' composition

Now, I'm not saying it's aliens, but... Sadly, it's probably just a really interesting icy outcrop of some description. Current theories of Ceres' composition suggest an enormously thick icy layer covered in dust and rock, so a meteor strike could expose the ice (and probably cause all kinds of weird physics --- ice goes strange under extreme temperatures and pressures). But let's say it is aliens, and in a week or so we get pictures of what is indubitably an alien city. Thought experiment: what happens next?

imaginenore 11y ago
Next countries spend all their money trying to get there first to get that sweet sweet alien technology.
tlarkworthy 11y ago
a civil war on Earth, it would negate a lot of firmly held beliefs by some communities. Even secular groups might consider it imperative to stop any further contact.
- ajuc 11y ago
  Meh. Science negated more firmly held beliefs of many religious communities and nobody fought wars over that. They either adapted, or deny all evidences. There was no Great Religious War Over The Theory of Evolution or over the age of universe. People prefer to live in denial. Much more convenient than dying in a war (indirectly acknowledging beliefs you don't like).
- CamperBob2 11y ago
  Religious people already have to deal with immense cognitive dissonance in a large number of contexts. Accommodating the discovery of extraterrestrial life won't be that difficult.
honestcoyote 11y ago
It's a fun thought experiment. I've had a similar one, imagining an alternate cold war with the divergent point being the mid 60's Mariner probe visit to Mars revealed canals, cities, vegetation, and a shallow ocean. A city on Ceres would make NASA's budgetary woes go away instantly. Either there would be a new space race, or the various spacefaring nations would quickly make an arrangement for a multinational crew to visit, with each nation (or group like the EU) reserving the right to make claims later. I'm not sure how the public would react. I think they'd be glued to the news, but there wouldn't be any sort of panic, since both science and science fiction has led many people to expect finding this sort of thing one day.
- david-given 11y ago
  Of course, it's worth considering that if there was an inhabited alien city on Ceres, the chances of them not knowing we were here would be nil. So, alternative (a): they know we're here and for some reason don't want us to know about them. Alternative (b): they know we're here but either don't care / are too alien to want to communicate. Alternative (c): the city is uninhabited. I would say that the most immediate reaction on earth would be shouting, initially at each other, but very quickly people would be shouting at Ceres --- everyone who can do some basic electronics and get hold of a satellite dish will be making transmissions. For alternatives (b) and (c) above, we wouldn't get a reply. For (a), well...
  - grecy 11y ago
    > Of course, it's worth considering that if there was an inhabited alien city on Ceres, the chances of them not knowing we were here would be nil. What makes you say that? If they are there, then we don't know about them (yet). Also, imagine they're at the same level of technology we were 100 years ago (or 1,000, 10,000 or even 100,000)
    - TeMPOraL 11y ago
      I think GP is assuming that Ceres is not their homeworld, but the city is just a colony. This would imply a level of technology ahead of ours.
      - david-given 11y ago
        Yes, I was. I hadn't thought of the aliens actually been indigenous to Ceres. It's an interesting idea. They would most likely have evolved in the water/ice layer, and be based on weird and exotic ice chemistry. That would make the city their equivalent of a lunar outpost, and it's quite plausible that they simply may not have noticed electromagnetic waves. The chances of talking to them would probably be quite slim --- we would be appallingly alen to each other.
      - jonah 11y ago
ars 11y ago
> Thought experiment: what happens next? Oddly enough, not that much. You'll have a lot of emotion, and lots of ink spilled, but little will change for the day to day life of most people: They have their lives to worry about, aliens are cool, but don't put bread on the table. Governments will race to get a mission with humans to visit. What happens next depends on if there are living aliens there, or just an old city.
- dholowiski 11y ago
  > What happens next depends on if there are living aliens there, or just an old city. But, when that mission arrives to inspect the lights, couldn't we expect that contact with alien technology, even if it is just an alien laser, to profoundly change our science?
  - ars 11y ago
    Assuming it even changes our science, which is not a given. But let's assume it does. Our science has changed profoundly many times. For example: Heliocentric solar system, Nuclear Bomb, and radio, just to give some of the most dramatic changes. Did all that much change on Earth? Most people just went on like normal. Things changed, but slowly, there was no shock. Can you imagine someone from long ago, who is told "We just found a way to speak to someone 300 miles away in an instant." They would probably go nuts imagining the immense change in peoples lives, in war, in commerce. Yet, these changes actually happened, and while things changed, there was no turmoil. The reality was not as dramatic as the expectation.
    - deleted 11y ago
      [deleted]
    - nekopa 11y ago
      This reminds me of a sentence in Moby Dick: "Grand Contested Election for the Presidency of the United States. "WHALING VOYAGE BY ONE ISHMAEL. "BLOODY BATTLE IN AFFGHANISTAN." Published 1851. The more things change, the more things stay the same.
    - 11y ago
MrZongle2 11y ago
"Thought experiment: what happens next?" I'll bite. :D Publicly-accessible data from Dawn stops immediately. Specific data from the on-board components provided by the Netherlands, Italy and Germany are sanitized and given to the specific country. Everything else is classified under the umbrella of national security. There is a hue and cry from many quarters regarding the blackout, bringing both the tinfoil hat brigade and legitimate scientists together. The reaction of religious organizations run the full spectrum from warning of "work of the Devil" to those that welcome evidence of alien life as alternate forms of God's work. The American media will ask the burning questions prompted by their internal research departments: what did the President know and when did he know it, and how will this affect the next episode of "Keeping up with the Kardashians"? And the world will be subjected to a wave of horrible alien-themed movies, books and television programs quickly cobbled together to take advantage of the news. North Korea will threaten the alien city with destruction if it doesn't acknowledge that Kim Jong Un is the ruler of Earth. The price of oil will rise, inexplicably fall, and rise again. The day-to-day lives of regular folks will otherwise be unaffected.
suprgeek 11y ago
Inhabited alien city? Unimaginable changes Empty city (for some definition of empty - we may never know) Not that much in the short run
CamperBob2 11y ago
Thought experiment: what happens next? Press release from NASA: "Unfortunately, the Dawn probe appears to have experienced a technical malfunction, resulting in complete signal loss. Engineers are studying the problem, but no further information is currently available." That's about all we'll hear, for a while at least.
- mc808 11y ago
  Is it possible for amateurs/other space agencies with a big enough dish to capture the raw Dawn data themselves as it comes in, or is that stuff encrypted these days? (I assume outgoing command signals use some sort of authentication scheme, but that seems unnecessary for incoming data.)
  - CamperBob2 11y ago
    Hams have received probe signals before (see the amateur-dsn group on Yahoo) but I'm pretty sure no one has decoded data from any modern probe. They apparently have their reasons for encrypting it through obscurity if nothing else. Some of our most advanced modulation formats were originally developed for DSN work, in fact. They represent a space-program spinoff that doesn't get the attention it deserves.
- Zardoz84 11y ago
  Phobos 2 probe again ...
oliyoung 11y ago
Secret city, inhabited by aliens, close enough to know who we are but smart enough to stay away? http://marvel.com/universe/Inhumans http://marvel.com/universe/Inhumans
discardorama 11y ago
I used to think 'ice' too, but think about this: the sun is basically a point-source of lighting for Ceres; and yet the bright spot can be seen at various angles. Now, it is possible that it's a huge jaggedy piece of, such that it reflects sunlight at a wide range of angles; but what if it isn't? :-)

imaginenore 11y ago

Next countries spend all their money trying to get there first to get that sweet sweet alien technology.

tlarkworthy 11y ago

a civil war on Earth, it would negate a lot of firmly held beliefs by some communities. Even secular groups might consider it imperative to stop any further contact.

ajuc 11y ago
Meh. Science negated more firmly held beliefs of many religious communities and nobody fought wars over that. They either adapted, or deny all evidences. There was no Great Religious War Over The Theory of Evolution or over the age of universe. People prefer to live in denial. Much more convenient than dying in a war (indirectly acknowledging beliefs you don't like).
CamperBob2 11y ago
Religious people already have to deal with immense cognitive dissonance in a large number of contexts. Accommodating the discovery of extraterrestrial life won't be that difficult.

honestcoyote 11y ago

It's a fun thought experiment. I've had a similar one, imagining an alternate cold war with the divergent point being the mid 60's Mariner probe visit to Mars revealed canals, cities, vegetation, and a shallow ocean. A city on Ceres would make NASA's budgetary woes go away instantly. Either there would be a new space race, or the various spacefaring nations would quickly make an arrangement for a multinational crew to visit, with each nation (or group like the EU) reserving the right to make claims later. I'm not sure how the public would react. I think they'd be glued to the news, but there wouldn't be any sort of panic, since both science and science fiction has led many people to expect finding this sort of thing one day.

david-given 11y ago
Of course, it's worth considering that if there was an inhabited alien city on Ceres, the chances of them not knowing we were here would be nil. So, alternative (a): they know we're here and for some reason don't want us to know about them. Alternative (b): they know we're here but either don't care / are too alien to want to communicate. Alternative (c): the city is uninhabited. I would say that the most immediate reaction on earth would be shouting, initially at each other, but very quickly people would be shouting at Ceres --- everyone who can do some basic electronics and get hold of a satellite dish will be making transmissions. For alternatives (b) and (c) above, we wouldn't get a reply. For (a), well...
- grecy 11y ago
  > Of course, it's worth considering that if there was an inhabited alien city on Ceres, the chances of them not knowing we were here would be nil. What makes you say that? If they are there, then we don't know about them (yet). Also, imagine they're at the same level of technology we were 100 years ago (or 1,000, 10,000 or even 100,000)
  - TeMPOraL 11y ago
    I think GP is assuming that Ceres is not their homeworld, but the city is just a colony. This would imply a level of technology ahead of ours.
    - david-given 11y ago
      Yes, I was. I hadn't thought of the aliens actually been indigenous to Ceres. It's an interesting idea. They would most likely have evolved in the water/ice layer, and be based on weird and exotic ice chemistry. That would make the city their equivalent of a lunar outpost, and it's quite plausible that they simply may not have noticed electromagnetic waves. The chances of talking to them would probably be quite slim --- we would be appallingly alen to each other.
    - jonah 11y ago

ars 11y ago

> Thought experiment: what happens next? Oddly enough, not that much. You'll have a lot of emotion, and lots of ink spilled, but little will change for the day to day life of most people: They have their lives to worry about, aliens are cool, but don't put bread on the table. Governments will race to get a mission with humans to visit. What happens next depends on if there are living aliens there, or just an old city.

dholowiski 11y ago
> What happens next depends on if there are living aliens there, or just an old city. But, when that mission arrives to inspect the lights, couldn't we expect that contact with alien technology, even if it is just an alien laser, to profoundly change our science?
- ars 11y ago
  Assuming it even changes our science, which is not a given. But let's assume it does. Our science has changed profoundly many times. For example: Heliocentric solar system, Nuclear Bomb, and radio, just to give some of the most dramatic changes. Did all that much change on Earth? Most people just went on like normal. Things changed, but slowly, there was no shock. Can you imagine someone from long ago, who is told "We just found a way to speak to someone 300 miles away in an instant." They would probably go nuts imagining the immense change in peoples lives, in war, in commerce. Yet, these changes actually happened, and while things changed, there was no turmoil. The reality was not as dramatic as the expectation.
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
  - nekopa 11y ago
    This reminds me of a sentence in Moby Dick: "Grand Contested Election for the Presidency of the United States. "WHALING VOYAGE BY ONE ISHMAEL. "BLOODY BATTLE IN AFFGHANISTAN." Published 1851. The more things change, the more things stay the same.
  - 11y ago

MrZongle2 11y ago

"Thought experiment: what happens next?" I'll bite. :D Publicly-accessible data from Dawn stops immediately. Specific data from the on-board components provided by the Netherlands, Italy and Germany are sanitized and given to the specific country. Everything else is classified under the umbrella of national security. There is a hue and cry from many quarters regarding the blackout, bringing both the tinfoil hat brigade and legitimate scientists together. The reaction of religious organizations run the full spectrum from warning of "work of the Devil" to those that welcome evidence of alien life as alternate forms of God's work. The American media will ask the burning questions prompted by their internal research departments: what did the President know and when did he know it, and how will this affect the next episode of "Keeping up with the Kardashians"? And the world will be subjected to a wave of horrible alien-themed movies, books and television programs quickly cobbled together to take advantage of the news. North Korea will threaten the alien city with destruction if it doesn't acknowledge that Kim Jong Un is the ruler of Earth. The price of oil will rise, inexplicably fall, and rise again. The day-to-day lives of regular folks will otherwise be unaffected.

suprgeek 11y ago

Inhabited alien city? Unimaginable changes Empty city (for some definition of empty - we may never know) Not that much in the short run

CamperBob2 11y ago

Thought experiment: what happens next? Press release from NASA: "Unfortunately, the Dawn probe appears to have experienced a technical malfunction, resulting in complete signal loss. Engineers are studying the problem, but no further information is currently available." That's about all we'll hear, for a while at least.

mc808 11y ago
Is it possible for amateurs/other space agencies with a big enough dish to capture the raw Dawn data themselves as it comes in, or is that stuff encrypted these days? (I assume outgoing command signals use some sort of authentication scheme, but that seems unnecessary for incoming data.)
- CamperBob2 11y ago
  Hams have received probe signals before (see the amateur-dsn group on Yahoo) but I'm pretty sure no one has decoded data from any modern probe. They apparently have their reasons for encrypting it through obscurity if nothing else. Some of our most advanced modulation formats were originally developed for DSN work, in fact. They represent a space-program spinoff that doesn't get the attention it deserves.
Zardoz84 11y ago
Phobos 2 probe again ...

oliyoung 11y ago

Secret city, inhabited by aliens, close enough to know who we are but smart enough to stay away? http://marvel.com/universe/Inhumans http://marvel.com/universe/Inhumans

discardorama 11y ago

I used to think 'ice' too, but think about this: the sun is basically a point-source of lighting for Ceres; and yet the bright spot can be seen at various angles. Now, it is possible that it's a huge jaggedy piece of, such that it reflects sunlight at a wide range of angles; but what if it isn't? :-)