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I see this being the most plausible thing to happen. Separate insurance classes for manual and automatic cars, the costs of each being supported by their perspe

• dragonwriter 11y ago
  > However that begs the question: by sheer numbers would that make insurance on a automatic car comparable to a manually driven one? If there are significantly less manual cars, there are less accidents to pay out. But less to spread the cost over. Moreover, insurance rates aren't set at just enough to cover the average expected cost (which would result in, over any given time period, a 50% chance of the insurance company losing money) but enough above that that the insurance company is fairly certain that it will not lose money -- because of the law of large numbers, this will (for any given minimum probability of profitability) be closer to the expected cost when there are large numbers to spread the risk over, and farther (above) that expected cost when there are smaller numbers. So, smaller numbers of manual cars will -- all other things being equal -- drive up the costs of insuring manual cars if they are a separate risk pool from automatic cars.