4 ms·

They're claiming better specs than the RPi Model A (512 MB RAM, 1 GHz CPU) with more features (Bluetooth, Wi-Fi on board) for $9 vs the RPi's $25. I highly dou

by mplewis 11y ago

They're claiming better specs than the RPi Model A (512 MB RAM, 1 GHz CPU) with more features (Bluetooth, Wi-Fi on board) for $9 vs the RPi's $25. I highly doubt they will be able to produce the CHIP for $9/unit.

jbhatab 11y ago
I was thinking the exact same thing. Sounds great! Hope they pull it off, but RPi has been committed to cost reduction since day one and I'd be surprised if they could just undercut them like that. Hopefully I'm missing something. I will say that the design is much smaller and minimal so maybe all the fancy addon removal will help cost. But then you have to pay for boards and stuff anyway.
bravo22 11y ago
As do I. They might be able to pull it off with discounts from their suppliers but I imagine it is difficult to build a sustainable business around that price. Even assuming 20K volumes: Current market price for 4GB of flash is about $2.50[1]; 512MB of RAM is about $2[1]. Processor -- even if something like A33 -- would be about $4. You have another $2 of regulator, connectors, etc. The PCB is about $1.75 in volume and assembly would be $1. That's $13.25. Even if somehow they manage to make this thing really really cheap and get below that price, let's assume $7 or 50% of magical discount on top of current volume pricing, that's not much margin. Even if you sell 100K of these a year (which is very high) you've made only 200K in profit! EDIT: I forgot about BLE+WiFI -- add $4! Some are saying PCB pricing is high: I'm basing that on 2.3"x3.3" 6 layer board with 8 mils holes, and 4 mil clearance and ENIG finish. [1] I'm basing this on recent 50K purchases but here is a more public source: http://www.dramexchange.com/ http://www.dramexchange.com/
- pruth 11y ago
  I'm interested to know where these estimates come from. You can get PCBs for much cheaper in Shenzhen. Source : A rough quote from http://www.sz-jlc.com/ http://www.sz-jlc.com/ came out to $0.15 for less than 10k boards
  - bravo22 11y ago
    Shenzen pricing, 6 layer board with 8 mils holes, and 4 mil clearance. ENIG finish. 2.3"x3.3" Looking at the picture of their board the package is most likely 0.65 or -- possibly 0.4 -- pitch which means much laser drilled holes.
- sajal83 11y ago
  They are using much older A13 which retails for $3 on aliexpress...
  - kenrikm 11y ago
    And considering aliexpress being more expensive then ordering in bulk that number is most likely more like $2.
- bri3d 11y ago
  They're using AllWinner A13, which is quite old now. There's a good chance that since they mention frequently "working closer with AllWinner," AllWinner are dumping their old A13 stock onto CHIP at fire-sale prices, or that AllWinner are moving A13 even further downmarket. I think your PCB and assembly costs are a bit high, as well. I agree that their margins can't be good.
  - bravo22 11y ago
    It looks like R8 which is based on A13, most likely PoP because I don't see a DRAM or NAND flash in their pic. PCB might sound high, but it isn't standard 8/8/10 spec PCB. It will have smaller holes and tighter tolerances.
    - bri3d 11y ago
      You're right, and it must be PoP as I don't see any RAM in the picture either. AllWinner must be cutting them a hell of a deal, or (as others have speculated) they must be trying to subsidize the main board with other products.
      - bravo22 11y ago
        I think it is a combination of both. But even then I can't imagine profit of more than $1-$2 per board AT BEST.
- cperciva 11y ago
  Current market price... Remember that they're not going to be shipping for a year. I'm guessing prices will come down over that time.
- joshvm 11y ago
  Loss leader? They're also selling a load of (presumably) high markup accessories like the display adaptors and the PocketC.H.I.P. which is apparently worth $40.
agumonkey 11y ago
It's not improbable either, the board is far simpler, less connectors, and the rpi SoC is old.
irl_zebra 11y ago
Even a bluetooth or wifi dongle costs more than $9 retail! I just really don't see how this is possible, although that more than doubles to add an HDMI port.
- JosephRedfern 11y ago
  Is it possible that the price of the CHIP is being subsidised by sales for VGA/HDMI shields?
  - irl_zebra 11y ago
    Certainly! I imagine most people are going to get it with the shield versus just running headless. I believe wholesale on a shield like this would be in the $8-9 range, and they're essentially charging an extra $15 for the hdmi.
- bravo22 11y ago
  WiFi + BLE combo would be about $4 in volume.
- jbuzbee 11y ago
  $9 for a bluetooth dongle? how about 99 cents with free shipping and you can find the same for wifi: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Mini-USB-Bluetooth-Wireless-Adapter-Dongle-For-PC-Laptop-Windows-XP-Vista-Win-7-/301478316330?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item463182092a http://www.ebay.com/itm/Mini-USB-Bluetooth-Wireless-Adapter-...
  - ja27 11y ago
    That's a Bluetooth 2.0 dongle. The Bluetooth 4.0 dongles are more like $3.50 at the cheapest.
nraynaud 11y ago
nope, they won't, but they are selling overpriced accessories next to the chip, it's just a gillette system.
bri3d 11y ago
Note that the CHIP doesn't have HDMI output built in and that with the HDMI daughterboard, it's right back into RPi cost territory. Also, on the flip side of cost comparison, low-quality Allwinner-based tablets are easily available at under $30 on AliExpress.
- throwaway9324 11y ago
  People havn't been paying attention. This market isn't about selling an 8$ thing for 9, 12 or 15. It's about selling a 1$ thing for 10 and a 4$ thing for 40. Which they probably are with the accessories.
noonespecial 11y ago
I'm famously skeptical of this sort of thing. I was just as skeptical of the RasPi when I first heard of it. I was pleasantly surprised by the materialization of the RasPi despite their troubles getting production started. That said, I think this is a pipe dream. Its SO easy to hack together a prototype and then look at the volume discounted total of the BOM and think you've got a product. The most common mistake is to give yourself a "generous" 20% profit over the estimated cost of materials when really it should be more like 300% just to be viable. I suspect they'll discover soon enough that $20-$30 is a minimum realistic retail sale price for this item.
SoapSeller 11y ago
Hmm, It's 9$ for the bare board, no hdni/vga. The charge 15 for the adapter which should cost much less to produce. Also, it's look like allwinner's version of broadcom's rpi, so they mught get the various chips dirty cheap.
- pjc50 11y ago
  Connectors are surprisingly expensive compared to silicon. Especially if they're not reflow-compatible.
detaro 11y ago
From the makezine blog coverage (http://makezine.com/2015/05/07/next-thing-co-releases-worlds-first-9-computer/ http://makezine.com/2015/05/07/next-thing-co-releases-worlds...) How an industry giant and a tiny startup came to partner on a sub-$10 computing device owes to Next Thing’s history developing products and business connections with Shenzhen-based accelerator HAXLR8R, says Dave Rauchwerk, one of Next Thing’s three founders. “Once they understood what we were trying to do, they supported us fully.” Connecting with the right company wasn’t the only break the Oakland-based team had going for them. At the same time they were meeting with Allwinner and explaining their aspirations for a dirt-cheap computer, Allwinner was looking to redesign their successful A13 processor in a new, smaller form factor as a cheaper system-on-chip. It is this new chip, called the R8, that Next Thing received early access to and used in its board design.
ChuckMcM 11y ago
I tend to agree, only because the Bluetooth guys are kind of a PITA when it comes to calling stuff "bluetooth" (when I last checked they wanted either a big annual membership investment or a per system royalty deal). Of course I don't know if you can call it "similar to the wireless protocol your phone uses to talk to headphones" and get away with it. Reading Bunnie's blog about the ecosystem in China though I doubt AllWinner cares. They are certainly in the "Why ask permission? Is weird! Hey look how cheap this is?" camp.

by mplewis 11y ago

jbhatab 11y ago

I was thinking the exact same thing. Sounds great! Hope they pull it off, but RPi has been committed to cost reduction since day one and I'd be surprised if they could just undercut them like that. Hopefully I'm missing something. I will say that the design is much smaller and minimal so maybe all the fancy addon removal will help cost. But then you have to pay for boards and stuff anyway.

bravo22 11y ago

As do I. They might be able to pull it off with discounts from their suppliers but I imagine it is difficult to build a sustainable business around that price. Even assuming 20K volumes: Current market price for 4GB of flash is about $2.50[1]; 512MB of RAM is about $2[1]. Processor -- even if something like A33 -- would be about $4. You have another $2 of regulator, connectors, etc. The PCB is about $1.75 in volume and assembly would be $1. That's $13.25. Even if somehow they manage to make this thing really really cheap and get below that price, let's assume $7 or 50% of magical discount on top of current volume pricing, that's not much margin. Even if you sell 100K of these a year (which is very high) you've made only 200K in profit! EDIT: I forgot about BLE+WiFI -- add $4! Some are saying PCB pricing is high: I'm basing that on 2.3"x3.3" 6 layer board with 8 mils holes, and 4 mil clearance and ENIG finish. [1] I'm basing this on recent 50K purchases but here is a more public source: http://www.dramexchange.com/ http://www.dramexchange.com/

pruth 11y ago
I'm interested to know where these estimates come from. You can get PCBs for much cheaper in Shenzhen. Source : A rough quote from http://www.sz-jlc.com/ http://www.sz-jlc.com/ came out to $0.15 for less than 10k boards
- bravo22 11y ago
  Shenzen pricing, 6 layer board with 8 mils holes, and 4 mil clearance. ENIG finish. 2.3"x3.3" Looking at the picture of their board the package is most likely 0.65 or -- possibly 0.4 -- pitch which means much laser drilled holes.
sajal83 11y ago
They are using much older A13 which retails for $3 on aliexpress...
- kenrikm 11y ago
  And considering aliexpress being more expensive then ordering in bulk that number is most likely more like $2.
bri3d 11y ago
They're using AllWinner A13, which is quite old now. There's a good chance that since they mention frequently "working closer with AllWinner," AllWinner are dumping their old A13 stock onto CHIP at fire-sale prices, or that AllWinner are moving A13 even further downmarket. I think your PCB and assembly costs are a bit high, as well. I agree that their margins can't be good.
- bravo22 11y ago
  It looks like R8 which is based on A13, most likely PoP because I don't see a DRAM or NAND flash in their pic. PCB might sound high, but it isn't standard 8/8/10 spec PCB. It will have smaller holes and tighter tolerances.
  - bri3d 11y ago
    You're right, and it must be PoP as I don't see any RAM in the picture either. AllWinner must be cutting them a hell of a deal, or (as others have speculated) they must be trying to subsidize the main board with other products.
    - bravo22 11y ago
      I think it is a combination of both. But even then I can't imagine profit of more than $1-$2 per board AT BEST.
cperciva 11y ago
Current market price... Remember that they're not going to be shipping for a year. I'm guessing prices will come down over that time.
joshvm 11y ago
Loss leader? They're also selling a load of (presumably) high markup accessories like the display adaptors and the PocketC.H.I.P. which is apparently worth $40.

agumonkey 11y ago

It's not improbable either, the board is far simpler, less connectors, and the rpi SoC is old.

irl_zebra 11y ago

Even a bluetooth or wifi dongle costs more than $9 retail! I just really don't see how this is possible, although that more than doubles to add an HDMI port.

JosephRedfern 11y ago
Is it possible that the price of the CHIP is being subsidised by sales for VGA/HDMI shields?
- irl_zebra 11y ago
  Certainly! I imagine most people are going to get it with the shield versus just running headless. I believe wholesale on a shield like this would be in the $8-9 range, and they're essentially charging an extra $15 for the hdmi.
bravo22 11y ago
WiFi + BLE combo would be about $4 in volume.
jbuzbee 11y ago
$9 for a bluetooth dongle? how about 99 cents with free shipping and you can find the same for wifi: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Mini-USB-Bluetooth-Wireless-Adapter-Dongle-For-PC-Laptop-Windows-XP-Vista-Win-7-/301478316330?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item463182092a http://www.ebay.com/itm/Mini-USB-Bluetooth-Wireless-Adapter-...
- ja27 11y ago
  That's a Bluetooth 2.0 dongle. The Bluetooth 4.0 dongles are more like $3.50 at the cheapest.

nraynaud 11y ago

nope, they won't, but they are selling overpriced accessories next to the chip, it's just a gillette system.

bri3d 11y ago

Note that the CHIP doesn't have HDMI output built in and that with the HDMI daughterboard, it's right back into RPi cost territory. Also, on the flip side of cost comparison, low-quality Allwinner-based tablets are easily available at under $30 on AliExpress.

throwaway9324 11y ago
People havn't been paying attention. This market isn't about selling an 8$ thing for 9, 12 or 15. It's about selling a 1$ thing for 10 and a 4$ thing for 40. Which they probably are with the accessories.

noonespecial 11y ago

I'm famously skeptical of this sort of thing. I was just as skeptical of the RasPi when I first heard of it. I was pleasantly surprised by the materialization of the RasPi despite their troubles getting production started. That said, I think this is a pipe dream. Its SO easy to hack together a prototype and then look at the volume discounted total of the BOM and think you've got a product. The most common mistake is to give yourself a "generous" 20% profit over the estimated cost of materials when really it should be more like 300% just to be viable. I suspect they'll discover soon enough that $20-$30 is a minimum realistic retail sale price for this item.

SoapSeller 11y ago

Hmm, It's 9$ for the bare board, no hdni/vga. The charge 15 for the adapter which should cost much less to produce. Also, it's look like allwinner's version of broadcom's rpi, so they mught get the various chips dirty cheap.

pjc50 11y ago
Connectors are surprisingly expensive compared to silicon. Especially if they're not reflow-compatible.

detaro 11y ago

From the makezine blog coverage (http://makezine.com/2015/05/07/next-thing-co-releases-worlds-first-9-computer/ http://makezine.com/2015/05/07/next-thing-co-releases-worlds...) How an industry giant and a tiny startup came to partner on a sub-$10 computing device owes to Next Thing’s history developing products and business connections with Shenzhen-based accelerator HAXLR8R, says Dave Rauchwerk, one of Next Thing’s three founders. “Once they understood what we were trying to do, they supported us fully.” Connecting with the right company wasn’t the only break the Oakland-based team had going for them. At the same time they were meeting with Allwinner and explaining their aspirations for a dirt-cheap computer, Allwinner was looking to redesign their successful A13 processor in a new, smaller form factor as a cheaper system-on-chip. It is this new chip, called the R8, that Next Thing received early access to and used in its board design.

ChuckMcM 11y ago

I tend to agree, only because the Bluetooth guys are kind of a PITA when it comes to calling stuff "bluetooth" (when I last checked they wanted either a big annual membership investment or a per system royalty deal). Of course I don't know if you can call it "similar to the wireless protocol your phone uses to talk to headphones" and get away with it. Reading Bunnie's blog about the ecosystem in China though I doubt AllWinner cares. They are certainly in the "Why ask permission? Is weird! Hey look how cheap this is?" camp.