You've got 650 marginal elections where people can only pick one party - and not a coalition through prioritized votes. Compare this to the US where each congre

You've got 650 marginal elections where people can only pick one party - and not a coalition through prioritized votes. Compare this to the US where each congressional election is usually between two or three candidates/parties. This makes forecasts primed for surprises due to margins of error alone, not including other factors.