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The Conservatives are highly unlikely to campaign against the EU despite promising a referendum on it. Indeed, I think they're breathing a sigh of relief only 1

The Conservatives are highly unlikely to campaign against the EU despite promising a referendum on it. Indeed, I think they're breathing a sigh of relief only 1 UKIP MP will be sitting opposite them in the house pushing forward the No vote. The lack of any cohesive UKIP vote this time around demonstrates the will of the UK is not to abandon the EU, so the Tories won't really bother to campaign either way IMHO.

ZeroGravitas 12y ago
I believe the prime minister specifically stated that they would hold the referendum but campaign for people to vote to remain in the EU. I'm guessing at least a subset of his party will campaign on the opposite side. In a referendum, it's the number of UKIP voters that they'll need to be wary of, not the number of UKIP MPs in the House of Commons as a result of the well-known distortions of the PFTP voting system. In fact, it's the number of people who ever expressed a desire to vote for UKIP that's the worry, even if someone tactically voted Conservative or Labour in the end, that doesn't mean they're going to vote to remain in the EU. I assume big business will ensure we stay in, but even the two years of uncertainty beforehand is going to be very costly.
- mercurial 12y ago
  How much support is there for an exit, though? I was under the impression that most of Scotland was in favour of staying in the EU, for instance.
  - ZeroGravitas 12y ago
    Scotland's only 10% of the population so that's the maximum they can contribute to the polls. Though the potential for Scotland to vote to leave the UK and remain in the EU in the event of an exit may help dampen enthusiasm for leaving.
tomtoise 12y ago
This is quite an interesting stance. While I'm glad as an Englishman who appreciates the EU that UKIP didn't come to more power, I think it's unfair to say there was no UKIP vote, they came second or third in a lot of Labour areas and actually netted around 12% of all votes, which is huge, beating the Lib Dems outright. It's only our messed up FPTP system that means we're safe from UKIP, which doesn't resonate well with me. When a party can net 12% of the overall vote, coming third overall and only get a single seat in Parliment, something is seriously wrong with our voting system.
- masklinn 12y ago
  Your parent didn't say there was no UKIP vote, he said there was no cohesive UKIP votes: UKIP got a bit of voice everywhere but as a result got nothing due to FPTP. Compare to the SNP who got less overall votes than UKIP but focused their effort in a much smaller number of constituencies.
DanBC 12y ago
Did you listen to the results coming in? UKIP came solid second place in many places, getting several thousand more votes than other parties in those places. It'd be interesting (to me scary) to see how many seats UKIP would have under proportional representation.

ZeroGravitas 12y ago

I believe the prime minister specifically stated that they would hold the referendum but campaign for people to vote to remain in the EU. I'm guessing at least a subset of his party will campaign on the opposite side. In a referendum, it's the number of UKIP voters that they'll need to be wary of, not the number of UKIP MPs in the House of Commons as a result of the well-known distortions of the PFTP voting system. In fact, it's the number of people who ever expressed a desire to vote for UKIP that's the worry, even if someone tactically voted Conservative or Labour in the end, that doesn't mean they're going to vote to remain in the EU. I assume big business will ensure we stay in, but even the two years of uncertainty beforehand is going to be very costly.

mercurial 12y ago
How much support is there for an exit, though? I was under the impression that most of Scotland was in favour of staying in the EU, for instance.
- ZeroGravitas 12y ago
  Scotland's only 10% of the population so that's the maximum they can contribute to the polls. Though the potential for Scotland to vote to leave the UK and remain in the EU in the event of an exit may help dampen enthusiasm for leaving.

tomtoise 12y ago

This is quite an interesting stance. While I'm glad as an Englishman who appreciates the EU that UKIP didn't come to more power, I think it's unfair to say there was no UKIP vote, they came second or third in a lot of Labour areas and actually netted around 12% of all votes, which is huge, beating the Lib Dems outright. It's only our messed up FPTP system that means we're safe from UKIP, which doesn't resonate well with me. When a party can net 12% of the overall vote, coming third overall and only get a single seat in Parliment, something is seriously wrong with our voting system.

masklinn 12y ago
Your parent didn't say there was no UKIP vote, he said there was no cohesive UKIP votes: UKIP got a bit of voice everywhere but as a result got nothing due to FPTP. Compare to the SNP who got less overall votes than UKIP but focused their effort in a much smaller number of constituencies.

DanBC 12y ago

Did you listen to the results coming in? UKIP came solid second place in many places, getting several thousand more votes than other parties in those places. It'd be interesting (to me scary) to see how many seats UKIP would have under proportional representation.