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The paper "Algorithm Aversion: People Erroneously Avoid Algorithms After Seeing Them Err" [1] has references to examples. > Dawes subsequently gathered a large
by Strilanc 11y ago
The paper "Algorithm Aversion: People Erroneously Avoid Algorithms After Seeing Them Err" [1] has references to examples.
> Dawes subsequently gathered a large body of evidence showing that human experts did not perform as well as simple linear models at clinical diagnosis, forecasting graduate students’ success, and other prediction tasks (Dawes, 1979; Dawes, Faust, & Meehl, 1989).
Given that a majority of people (and doctors) fail even the simplest probabilistic reasoning tests, this is not particularly surprising. [2]
> We know from several studies that physicians, college students (Eddy, 1982), and staff at Harvard Medical School (Casscells, Schoenberger, & Grayboys, 1978) all have equally great difficulties with this and similar medical disease problems. For instance, Eddy (1982) reported that 95 out of 100 physicians estimated the posterior probability p(cancer|positive) to be between 70% and 80%, rather than 7.8%
1: http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/risk/library/WPAF201410-AlgorthimAversion-Dietvorst-Simmons-Massey.pdf http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/risk/library/WPAF201410-Algort...
2: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.128.3201&rep=rep1&type=pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.128...