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The downward pressure on oil may not have actually been caused by US oil production (though it may have). I think the bigger influence on oil prices is that gul

by kolbe 12y ago

The downward pressure on oil may not have actually been caused by US oil production (though it may have). I think the bigger influence on oil prices is that gulf nations have maybe a 100 year supply of oil at their current output rates, but world reliance on fossil fuels doesn't look like it will last that long. Though, domestic production may have influenced this too. I'll grant you that as a real possibility. One thing this machinery does offer us that I didn't mention is the option to produce domestically if prices ever do rise to the point of that being profitable again. And that option isn't necessarily worthless. "Middle of nowhere" was intended to elicit imagery, not insult. Various places that are in the middle of nowhere are actually my favorite ones in the world.

protomyth 12y ago
"The downward pressure on oil may not have actually been caused by US oil production" Trouble economy and US production are the primary reasons for the decline. This has several sources in the media. "if prices ever do rise to the point of that being profitable again" The ND formations are profitable for existing wells down to $36 (multiple sources in earlier messages on HN). Further exploration won't happen until it goes about $50 or $60. The Canada oil sands are not profitable at the low end, but either is Russia or Venezuela. "but world reliance on fossil fuels doesn't look like it will last that long" It will last for a while yet, since we are still waiting on the breakthrough in energy storage to make batteries as convenient as gas at the pump.
- kolbe 12y ago
  I know what the media says. The funny thing about the media is that it seems to do a lot of brown nosing to US corporations. I'm telling you what I believe based on research and beliefs. And I believe Saudi Arabia isn't refusing to cut output to fuck over Russia or the US as the media posits, but instead because they want to liquidate their oil as quickly as possible based on the trajectory we are seeing in green energy technology. The tech isn't there yet, but as a betting man, I'd bet that we will make serious progress in the next 20 years to significantly marginalize oil. The numbers I've read are much higher[1] than the ones you cited. [1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/idUSL3N0SH5N220141023 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/idUSL3N0SH5N220141...
  - protomyth 12y ago
    Well, the media speculates taking out Iran's cash flow is a bit more important to them than the US / Russia which I happen to think is fine reasoning. I am pretty sure its not to liquidate a supply.
- altcognito 12y ago
  > The ND formations are profitable for existing wells down to $36 http://www.startribune.com/lifestyle/health/287422241.html http://www.startribune.com/lifestyle/health/287422241.html Nonsense. Even in ND they start hedging at $52, and the fact that the number of oil rigs is shrinking is pretty obvious evidence that the $52 number is just PR to reassure investors. I don't think it's a ton more than $52, but it's not $36. We're seeing oil prices recover, so it might be all a moot point soon.
  - protomyth 12y ago
    http://fortune.com/north-dakota-fracking/ http://fortune.com/north-dakota-fracking/ "Even if oil prices stay low, the Watford City/Williston area may be the last in the region to feel the pain. It is in the “sweet spot” of the Bakken, with the breakeven price for production about $36 a barrel, according to the state." The Star Tribune hates fracking and is quoting the high number for the region, not the Bakken numbers.
    - altcognito 12y ago
      I think the proof is in the fact that they were letting the oil wells lapse. That being said, it's all academic now that oil prices are recovering.
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]

by kolbe 12y ago

protomyth 12y ago

"The downward pressure on oil may not have actually been caused by US oil production" Trouble economy and US production are the primary reasons for the decline. This has several sources in the media. "if prices ever do rise to the point of that being profitable again" The ND formations are profitable for existing wells down to $36 (multiple sources in earlier messages on HN). Further exploration won't happen until it goes about $50 or $60. The Canada oil sands are not profitable at the low end, but either is Russia or Venezuela. "but world reliance on fossil fuels doesn't look like it will last that long" It will last for a while yet, since we are still waiting on the breakthrough in energy storage to make batteries as convenient as gas at the pump.

kolbe 12y ago
I know what the media says. The funny thing about the media is that it seems to do a lot of brown nosing to US corporations. I'm telling you what I believe based on research and beliefs. And I believe Saudi Arabia isn't refusing to cut output to fuck over Russia or the US as the media posits, but instead because they want to liquidate their oil as quickly as possible based on the trajectory we are seeing in green energy technology. The tech isn't there yet, but as a betting man, I'd bet that we will make serious progress in the next 20 years to significantly marginalize oil. The numbers I've read are much higher[1] than the ones you cited. [1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/idUSL3N0SH5N220141023 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/idUSL3N0SH5N220141...
- protomyth 12y ago
  Well, the media speculates taking out Iran's cash flow is a bit more important to them than the US / Russia which I happen to think is fine reasoning. I am pretty sure its not to liquidate a supply.
altcognito 12y ago
> The ND formations are profitable for existing wells down to $36 http://www.startribune.com/lifestyle/health/287422241.html http://www.startribune.com/lifestyle/health/287422241.html Nonsense. Even in ND they start hedging at $52, and the fact that the number of oil rigs is shrinking is pretty obvious evidence that the $52 number is just PR to reassure investors. I don't think it's a ton more than $52, but it's not $36. We're seeing oil prices recover, so it might be all a moot point soon.
- protomyth 12y ago
  http://fortune.com/north-dakota-fracking/ http://fortune.com/north-dakota-fracking/ "Even if oil prices stay low, the Watford City/Williston area may be the last in the region to feel the pain. It is in the “sweet spot” of the Bakken, with the breakeven price for production about $36 a barrel, according to the state." The Star Tribune hates fracking and is quoting the high number for the region, not the Bakken numbers.
  - altcognito 12y ago
    I think the proof is in the fact that they were letting the oil wells lapse. That being said, it's all academic now that oil prices are recovering.

deleted 12y ago

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