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The "10x" effect is real (not a "myth") but it has more to do with skills and exposure than innate talent. (It's also context-specific. I'm a 10x when I get to
by michaelochurch 11y ago
The "10x" effect is real (not a "myth") but it has more to do with skills and exposure than innate talent. (It's also context-specific. I'm a 10x when I get to pick the tools, but a sub-1x on enterprise Java because I just can't bring myself to give a fuck about some Spring/Hibernate/POJO legacy mess.) That's what missed in this conversation. Yes, those mediocre Java programmers (CommodityScrumDrones) really are a drag, but it's not low IQ that has made them what they are, and they're not genetically destined to remain that way. That aspect of a person can change, and quickly.
At any rate, I've met plenty of high-IQ people who are just awful programmers. Smart as hell, but really bad at writing code. I think that attitude is a major factor. If you think programming is important and genuinely want to learn it (and not just "good enough to get a job") then I think it's quite possible for a lot of people to learn how to do it well enough.
Innate talent might matter at the extreme upper end of competitive programming. Just as most people can run a marathon with enough work, but very few will ever get below 3:00, I'd believe that the percentage of people who can reach the top in programming competitions is smaller than the percentage who can program adequately. So there's probably a talent ceiling there, just as there is in athletics. But real programming is more cooperative than competitive and there are plenty of factors (especially design sense and cross-domain knowledge) that matter in the real world more than innate talent.
Programming has a steep learning curve, but what's missed is that a steep learning curve is a good thing. The 10x effect exists because it's possible (especially in the early stages) to improve your own effectiveness by 20, 50, or even 100+ percent per year... and one becomes a true 10x-er not based on in-born talent but by having several 1.5x growth years in a row.