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It is hard to overstate the impact of this announcement. Just as solar panels were not expected to reach $0.70/watt until 2030 (reached it last year), batterie

by marze 11y ago

It is hard to overstate the impact of this announcement. Just as solar panels were not expected to reach $0.70/watt until 2030 (reached it last year), batteries were not expected to reach $400/kWh until years from now. It is now quite possible that off-grid will make economic sense across wide swaths of the globe for new construction, across a subset for retrofits.

ptaipale 11y ago
> batteries were not expected to reach $400/kWh until years from now. What? Your ordinary starting battery for a medium-sized car has 65 Ah @ 12 V. That is 780 wH. They cost here < 60 € or about 65 $. So they are significantly less than $100/kWh, and the technology has been around for more than a hundred years. (These are starting batteries, not entirely suitable for storing e.g. solar which are currently a bit more expensive, but not nearly twice as expensive, and the difference in price comes just from manufacturing and sales volume).
- bainsfather 11y ago
  Here [0] is a lead-acid storage battery, UK price £90 ($135) for 1.26kWh. That is $107/kWh. You do not use the whole 1.26kWh each cycle - you only want to use e.g. 50% of that, so that you get reasonable battery life (fully discharge your lead-acid batteries, and you won't have any electrodes left). So $208/kWh might be the 'actually usable' value. The harder number to find is battery lifetime - it depends on many factors (discharge depth, number of cycles per year, storage temperature, exact battery type, etc). And when you are doing cost-benefit analysis, this number is a vital part of your calculations. You also want to know 'if I wait x years, will the price of Tesla batteries have dropped so much that I would be better holding cash now, and buying Tesla batteries in the future). This headline number is not the total cost of course, you need charge controller, inverter, building to house the batteries, etc. [0] http://www.bimblesolar.com/27DC105-105AH-12V?search=battery http://www.bimblesolar.com/27DC105-105AH-12V?search=battery
  - ptaipale 11y ago
    BTW that £90 clearly includes VAT, but is the VAT on home battery systems in UK 20 % or 5 %? Domestic fuel is 5% but that doesn't necessarily mean that the same reduced rate applies to replacement energy devices?
    - bainsfather 11y ago
      For ballpark numbers, I am not worrying about 15%. e.g. will your batteries last 10yrs, 20yrs, or more, is a bigger unknown. But to try answering your question, here [0] the UK govt says it is 5% for battery banks for wind power, and for hydro power. Solar is not mentioned, my guess would be that the rate on the battery we are discussing is 5%. [0] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vat-notice-7086-energy-saving-materials/vat-notice-7086-energy-saving-materials https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vat-notice-7086-e...
      - ptaipale 11y ago
        Yes, this is not at all relevant for ballpark numbers, I was just interested whether the VAT rules appreciate the fact that these batteries are for alternative energy and not just generic consumer goods. I'm afraid my country (Finland) taxes them with 24 % VAT just like almost everything else.

by marze 11y ago

ptaipale 11y ago

> batteries were not expected to reach $400/kWh until years from now. What? Your ordinary starting battery for a medium-sized car has 65 Ah @ 12 V. That is 780 wH. They cost here < 60 € or about 65 $. So they are significantly less than $100/kWh, and the technology has been around for more than a hundred years. (These are starting batteries, not entirely suitable for storing e.g. solar which are currently a bit more expensive, but not nearly twice as expensive, and the difference in price comes just from manufacturing and sales volume).

bainsfather 11y ago
Here [0] is a lead-acid storage battery, UK price £90 ($135) for 1.26kWh. That is $107/kWh. You do not use the whole 1.26kWh each cycle - you only want to use e.g. 50% of that, so that you get reasonable battery life (fully discharge your lead-acid batteries, and you won't have any electrodes left). So $208/kWh might be the 'actually usable' value. The harder number to find is battery lifetime - it depends on many factors (discharge depth, number of cycles per year, storage temperature, exact battery type, etc). And when you are doing cost-benefit analysis, this number is a vital part of your calculations. You also want to know 'if I wait x years, will the price of Tesla batteries have dropped so much that I would be better holding cash now, and buying Tesla batteries in the future). This headline number is not the total cost of course, you need charge controller, inverter, building to house the batteries, etc. [0] http://www.bimblesolar.com/27DC105-105AH-12V?search=battery http://www.bimblesolar.com/27DC105-105AH-12V?search=battery
- ptaipale 11y ago
  BTW that £90 clearly includes VAT, but is the VAT on home battery systems in UK 20 % or 5 %? Domestic fuel is 5% but that doesn't necessarily mean that the same reduced rate applies to replacement energy devices?
  - bainsfather 11y ago
    For ballpark numbers, I am not worrying about 15%. e.g. will your batteries last 10yrs, 20yrs, or more, is a bigger unknown. But to try answering your question, here [0] the UK govt says it is 5% for battery banks for wind power, and for hydro power. Solar is not mentioned, my guess would be that the rate on the battery we are discussing is 5%. [0] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vat-notice-7086-energy-saving-materials/vat-notice-7086-energy-saving-materials https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vat-notice-7086-e...
    - ptaipale 11y ago
      Yes, this is not at all relevant for ballpark numbers, I was just interested whether the VAT rules appreciate the fact that these batteries are for alternative energy and not just generic consumer goods. I'm afraid my country (Finland) taxes them with 24 % VAT just like almost everything else.