4 ms·

Its hardly a matter of being wrong one year and accurate the next. They make wrong predictions every single year. Here's the US: http://www.ssti.us/2013/12/new

• VLM 12y ago
  Note the careful editing to not show numerous historical examples where pre-90 or so, any negative fluctuation was a statistical fluke or a short term downterm, promptly made up. So pre-90 or so, it was always correct to extend the trendline at the average growth line. Admitting the party is over would offend very powerful monied interests. Follow the money... a lot of money is made building and selling exurbs, and a minor secondary industry is going to have political problems stating the high level policy change of "the party is over". A mayor, governor, president needs to state the policy change before the pothole filler is permitted to observe it. You see this phenomena in economic figures and in the meta selection of economic figures (the Dow, the unemployment rate, the GDP, the .gov inflation rate all used to "mean something" to the lifestyle of the general population. Not so any more, they are meaningless now in practice.)