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Predicting AI progress isn't like predicting other things were you can lay out all the steps that need to be done and make a plan. It's more like solving a seri

Predicting AI progress isn't like predicting other things were you can lay out all the steps that need to be done and make a plan. It's more like solving a series of hard technical problems. No one knows what the solutions will be or how long it will take someone to invent them. There were perfectly educated people that said there would never be flying machines, 2 years before the Wright brothers succeeded.

jacquesm 12y ago
That's exactly it. This is like saying there will be flying machines in 30 years after seeing a bird for the first time without even realizing that you need to know about aerodynamics and that you need a technology based society to support the development of engines as the prime mover before you can have powered flight. It's not about saying it can't be done it is all about saying it can be done within a specific time-frame. Key inventions don't happen 'on command' unless the only thing required is a brute force search for something that is already possible in principle (say electric light).