https://intelligence.org/2015/01/08/brooks-searle-agi-volition-timelines/ https://intelligence.org/2015/01/08/brooks-searle-agi-voliti... >According to a 2013

https://intelligence.org/2015/01/08/brooks-searle-agi-volition-timelines/ https://intelligence.org/2015/01/08/brooks-searle-agi-voliti... >According to a 2013 survey of the most cited authors in artificial intelligence, experts expect AI to be able to “carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human” with a 10% probability by the (median) year 2024, with 50% probability by 2050, and with 90% probability by 2070, assuming uninterrupted scientific progress. Bostrom is less confident than this that AGI will arrive so soon: >>My own view is that the median numbers reported in the expert survey do not have enough probability mass on later arrival dates. A 10% probability of HLMI [human-level machine intelligence] not having been developed by 2075 or even 2100 (after conditionalizing on “human scientific activity continuing without major negative disruption”) seems too low.