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"BOTH financiers and economists still get the blame for the 2007-2009 financial crisis: the first group for causing it and the second for not predicting it" Ec

"BOTH financiers and economists still get the blame for the 2007-2009 financial crisis: the first group for causing it and the second for not predicting it" Economist worth their name had predicted the crisis and way more. There are good serious economist out there, but do not look for them in the media, including the Economist. It is economists in the media and power institutions who failed to predict the crisis, on record, because most of them are not as stupid as the look when they talk. That is, if you get to chat with them personally, you realize they know pretty well what is happening. They have the biggest amount of intelligence resources in the world, and again they use to be very smart. But they can't say what they know in public as a word for them could bankrupt entire nations. In the inner circles in meetings in Switzerland cities they are really worried about what is happening, but then in public they say everything is ok. Keynesianism had become the non sense dogma of today economist on media and Universities. If Keynes were alive he would not approve what is being called Keynesianism today, as you can see if you read Keynes.

FeepingCreature 11y ago
If they predicted the crisis, why aren't they rich? Economics has the remarkable property that if you can see the future coming better than your peers, you can profit off it. So conversely, whenever somebody claims in retrospect that they saw the future coming it should be asked why they didn't profit.
- slavik81 11y ago
  The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Even if you can easily see the inevitable correction coming, it's difficult to say when it will happen. A powder keg still needs a spark to take.
  - FeepingCreature 11y ago
    I want to say "if you can't see when it'll come, you're not really predicting it", but that's too easy. I wonder if there's a way to "far-short" a stock. Like, if you think the stock in question will "eventually" go up to $1k, you can buy now and sell when it does. But if you think it'll "eventually" drop to $10, you can't easily trade on that, right? Maybe the way to go is to buy everything _but_ that stock (via overlapping index funds?), then sell once the stock drops to $10 and reevaluate from there? I don't know.
- eli_gottlieb 11y ago
  >If they predicted the crisis, why aren't they rich? Who says they're not?
  - FeepingCreature 11y ago
    I feel like if they got rich off predicting the crisis, they should advertise that a lot more loudly. It's the one undeniable evidence of predictive success there is in the market. Of course, that might be stupid from a PR perspective. Which is terrible.
Nimitz14 11y ago
lol

FeepingCreature 11y ago

If they predicted the crisis, why aren't they rich? Economics has the remarkable property that if you can see the future coming better than your peers, you can profit off it. So conversely, whenever somebody claims in retrospect that they saw the future coming it should be asked why they didn't profit.

slavik81 11y ago
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Even if you can easily see the inevitable correction coming, it's difficult to say when it will happen. A powder keg still needs a spark to take.
- FeepingCreature 11y ago
  I want to say "if you can't see when it'll come, you're not really predicting it", but that's too easy. I wonder if there's a way to "far-short" a stock. Like, if you think the stock in question will "eventually" go up to $1k, you can buy now and sell when it does. But if you think it'll "eventually" drop to $10, you can't easily trade on that, right? Maybe the way to go is to buy everything _but_ that stock (via overlapping index funds?), then sell once the stock drops to $10 and reevaluate from there? I don't know.
eli_gottlieb 11y ago
>If they predicted the crisis, why aren't they rich? Who says they're not?
- FeepingCreature 11y ago
  I feel like if they got rich off predicting the crisis, they should advertise that a lot more loudly. It's the one undeniable evidence of predictive success there is in the market. Of course, that might be stupid from a PR perspective. Which is terrible.

Nimitz14 11y ago

lol