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What I'd love to see is a ROI calculator that: * uses my zip code to figure out what my non-peak costs might be. * allows me to optionally calculate solar ene

What I'd love to see is a ROI calculator that: * uses my zip code to figure out what my non-peak costs might be. * allows me to optionally calculate solar energy capture (so I can see what impact having solar would be, given the average sunny days in my area) * takes into account the wear and tear average cold weather would have on the lifetime of the batter and the payback period. For example, I live in Michigan, and I don't know what my off peak cost is off the top of my head. I also have no idea how much sunshine I get, or how 10 degree lows for two months would impact the battery's ability to keep a charge. Anybody know if something like this exists?

ams6110 11y ago
I would guess for most people it would show an ROI number that is not conducive to sales. Also, what is the environmental impact of the manufacture of LI batteries at this scale? Lithium mining, processing, assembly, delivery... we can't just ignore that.
- beat 11y ago
  The environmental impact shouldn't be significantly more than any other hunk of metal of the same mass. And that has to be weighed against the fact that cost-efficient battery technology can make solar/wind viable and cost-effective relative to fossil fuel plants.
  - danielweber 11y ago
    There's about $10,000 worth of work in a battery. It's not just a hunk of metal, it goes through a very complicated and energy intensive creation process. The cost of the raw lithium is about 1% of the cost of the battery. It's engineering it in a very precise way that's expensive.
    - voodoomagicman 11y ago
      The battery costs $3000 - that is likely a cap on the cost of the work involved in producing it.
      - deleted 11y ago
        [deleted]
      - alkonaut 11y ago
        You'd think, but that depends on how many times you can sell the same battery. As others have said, it's plausible that this is a way for Tesla to make use of used car batteries.
        mikeash 11y ago
        I really doubt that's true, just because it's too early for it. There are approximately zero used Tesla batteries available right now. The fleet is just too new. Maybe in another ten years.
        alkonaut 11y ago
        When the used batteries start piling up, it's best for tesla if this system is already in place. Entirely possible that this will be new and subsidized batteries initially. They will need to find a use for the old car batteries.
        mikeash 11y ago
        Could be, but they're jumping the gun a lot if that's the main idea. Tesla sales didn't really ramp up until 2014, and the batteries will probably last at least 10 years in the cars themselves. In any case, they wouldn't need to subsidize these batteries. $350/kWh is a pretty decent price, and consistent with estimates of what they cost in Tesla's cars.
        create123 11y ago
        The large packs are priced at $250/kWh which I think is the real news. That means their cost is very likely under $200. Don't think the other car manuf are close to that.
    - beat 11y ago
      Is the precision itself so energy-intensive, though?
  - nine_k 11y ago
    Just as a thought experiment, compare the environmental impact of producing a hunk of steel, nickel, lead, gold, plutonium of the same mass. These are vastly different.
- at-fates-hands 11y ago
  I agree. Strangely, all of these issues were conveniently left out of the article. Not sure everybody knows this, but its not economically feasible to recycle these batteries: "Recycled lithium is as much as five times the cost of lithium produced from the least costly brine based process. It is not competitive for recycling companies to extract lithium from slag, or competitive for the OEMs to buy at higher price points from recycling companies. " Add in the fact there are currently very few dedicated LI recycling companies in the world, let alone in the US: "With lithium recycling in its infancy, there is currently no main recycling infrastructure in the world that treats only automotive Li-ion batteries. A few pilot plants, such as Umicore's Hoboken plant in Belgium that are at a demonstration stage exist. Lack of standardisation in battery chemistries and changing landscape with respect to different elements under research for battery production other than lithium have made evaluation of the recycled value of the components uncertain for the recyclers." source: http://www.waste-management-world.com/articles/print/volume-12/issue-4/features/the-lithium-battery-recycling-challenge.html http://www.waste-management-world.com/articles/print/volume-... Call me skeptical, but I'm not sure Tesla has really given consideration to these issues. Their approach to these obvious issues are not addressed at all in their press release.
  - revelation 11y ago
    So I recently needed a special cable to make some old gear work. It was only available from a single source and they charged me an arm and a half for it. Why am I telling you all of this? Because the price of something has very, very, very, very, very little to do with how feasible something is, how much work is required on a fundamental level. So what? Recycling lithium isn't profitable right now this very instant? Because the price is too high? Apart from the circular logic here, this means nothing. (This kind of thinking is disappointingly common here. We will never get anywhere when we do some adhoc "price" analysis on every new technology and obviously deduce it's infeasible and should not be explored. Cars were economically infeasible back when you bought petrol from the pharmacy.)
    - czottmann 11y ago
      Yes. Thank you. I wish I could upvote your comment more than once.
- nine_k 11y ago
  Lithium mining has relatively little environmental impact: it's mostly evaporation of lithium-rich brines. But lithium is still not cheap. I suppose that a different battery technology, with lower energy density per unit of weight, could be much cheaper with comparable efficiency. But Tesla only has expertise in lithium batteries, so some other manufacturer could use the momentum with a lower-cost offer.
  - Tuna-Fish 11y ago
    > But lithium is still not cheap. Lithium is extremely cheap. The cost of the Lithium has practically no impact on the cost of the batteries. Most of the cost of batteries is work. This venture makes sense because as lithium batteries are used, they lose capacity, and thus their specific energy gets worse. At this point, they are no longer very useful for cars, yet still can be used for other things. As Tesla recovers the used batteries from their cars, they can resell them as home batteries.
    - nine_k 11y ago
      Recycling this way batteries that are not good for cars but fine for less demanding applications would be really smart. Is there any indication that they actually do this?
      - pkulak 11y ago
        I think they've been doing it in one-off situations with Solar City now for a while. If they are not doing exactly this with this venture, I'd be surprised.
      - yungchin 11y ago
        Seems they alluded to exactly that some years ago (2008!): http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mythbusters-part-3-recycling-our-non-toxic-battery-packs http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mythbusters-part-3-recycling... "... at some unfortunate point, the ESS will come to the end of its useful life in the application :(. However, it might be possible to use the ESS in other applications. For example, the ESS could be used as a power source for off-grid backup or load leveling. "
giarc 11y ago
Would you not install the battery in a heated place in your house (garage, basement, furnace room)?
- danielweber 11y ago
  What if it's in the garage and someone hits it with the car and pierces the cells? I didn't see "insurance" anywhere on that Tesla page. Ideally my insurance company won't pitch a fit about about me installing this in my house, but will Tesla guarantee that?
  - jws 11y ago
    Does your insurance company allow you to keep one liter of gasoline in your garage? It has the same energy content as the Powerwall, is insanely flammable, is frequently implicated is home fires, and regularly causes human deaths. (Ok, a burning lithium battery will release more energy than its storage capacity, but I'm not finding a nice reference, Tesla knows all about containing cells to prevent chain reactions, and one liter of gasoline is still enough to burn down your whole house.)
    - danielweber 11y ago
      Gas fumes are very flammable, but the gasoline itself will flow down and out of my garage, and the fire would be very easy to contain with a simple garden hose. A gas can also will not light on fire just because it gets hit with a car. It would take malicious use of a gas can -- splashing it on a wall and then lighting it on fire -- to match the default configuration of a Powerwall.
      - jws 11y ago
        Or a vapor reaching an open flame. Common source of human immolation.
      - warfangle 11y ago
        You ever try to put out a gasoline fire with a garden hose?
danielweber 11y ago
The wear and tear on lithium-ion batteries can be significant. It's a big capital cost and every time you cycle it you take a little of its life away. Eventually you have to replace it. And you really need to be using it, because a lithium-ion will still degrade even if its sitting unused on a shelf in a perfect climate-controlled room. Demand shifting seems a much bigger payoff: using your AC to superchill parts of your building overnight (or build up ice packs) when electricity is cheap.
balabaster 11y ago
What I'd like to see is an ability for me to provide a list of appliances that I tend to use in my house (makes/models) along with a "typical" use pattern like "washer, dryer, dishwasher, fridge, freezer, stove, 50" TV, 200W sound system and blu-ray player or cable box frequently get used at the same time" With a usage pattern like that, which of the two batteries would be most useful? would I need multiples wired in series or parallel? is that possible? how long would it last under a load like that? My target is for off-grid use, so ROI isn't as big a concern to me as longevity of power and charging requirements from off-grid power generation.
- donpdonp 11y ago
  There are easy to use meters such as the Kill-A-Watt for 120V appliances to measure usage directly.
  - balabaster 11y ago
    This is good for monitoring single appliances, but it's a pain in the neck to keep moving it from appliance to appliance. Do you know of one that I can attach to my power meter and it'll give me realtime usage, tracking, reports so that I can see my peak, minimum and average draw for the whole house?
    - smithbits 11y ago
      There's a product called the Efergy True Power meter that does exactly that. It measures mains electricity, wirelessly reports to a central server and shows you real time and historical graphs of energy usage at sub-minute resolution. http://efergy.com/us/elite-true-power-meter http://efergy.com/us/elite-true-power-meter
andor436 11y ago
I also live in Michigan, and can tell you it will be a money loser for one major reason: the full cost of the system you install will be added to your local property tax valuation, as the state tax exemption on renewable energy equipment was nullified several years ago and never replaced. In my case I had $500 in taxes added to my annual bill, which outpaces the value of the energy I produce and creates an infinite payback period. Wait until this tax issue is resolved, then it will actually make good sense here. (It's sunnier than most people think!)
- maxsilver 11y ago
  > the full cost of the system you install will be added to your local property tax valuation Why is that? And are you absolutely certain it's true? I also live in Michigan, and I've never heard of this. I've replaced major appliances before without it impacting my property tax assessment -- including appliances that have cost more than the Tesla Battery pack and been inspected+verified by the city (such as a new 96% efficient furnace). I don't see why adding a Tesla Battery would change property tax assessment any, when adding a $6,000 furnace, $5,000 air conditioner, or a $2,000 refrigerator doesn't.
  - andor436 11y ago
    Yes, I am unfortunately. I am in the midst of protesting an assessment now for a system I installed last year. See this pdf (sorry), page 17: http://www.michigan.gov/documents/mpsc/marketbarrierssolarinmi_394662_7.pdf http://www.michigan.gov/documents/mpsc/marketbarrierssolarin... Solar systems are considered "real" property, i.e. property that is permanently attached to the house, and thus subject to taxation.
  - walkon 11y ago
    A property would be assessed at a lower value if it didn't have any HVAC appliances installed in it. Since most properties start with such appliances, replacing them or upgrading them to similar, or even more efficient models, is likely considered a nominal effect on property value, i.e. an act of sustaining the properties existing value. A real battery backup system, assuming one didn't already exist on the property, would be considered a significant addition to property value.
DaniFong 11y ago
I wish it did; we are very far from harmonizing all the different utility rates. Once that data is clean up and available, an interactive website should not be too difficult to build. If anyone is interested in doing a paid internship to help us build it, send me a note with a portfolio at dfong@lightsail.com -- I run a compressed air energy storage company.
- lotsofmangos 11y ago
  Was going to ask if you are ever planning on doing a home system, as although compressed air tanks can be risky, presumably they are slightly less risky than normal gas supplies.
  - DaniFong 11y ago
    Compressed air tanks are tested very rigorously; including the gunfire test, bonfire test, impact test, sulfuric acid test, over test, over pressurization test... It is definitely safer than gas supplies, which strike me as an insane idea, especially in San Francisco where it previous burned down the city. We will eventually do a home system. It is in the planning stages
    - lotsofmangos 11y ago
      Thanks for the reply. I have been keeping a close eye on Lightsail and am hugely looking forward to the day when I can install one of your systems. My power bill this winter has been atrocious.

ams6110 11y ago

I would guess for most people it would show an ROI number that is not conducive to sales. Also, what is the environmental impact of the manufacture of LI batteries at this scale? Lithium mining, processing, assembly, delivery... we can't just ignore that.

beat 11y ago
The environmental impact shouldn't be significantly more than any other hunk of metal of the same mass. And that has to be weighed against the fact that cost-efficient battery technology can make solar/wind viable and cost-effective relative to fossil fuel plants.
- danielweber 11y ago
  There's about $10,000 worth of work in a battery. It's not just a hunk of metal, it goes through a very complicated and energy intensive creation process. The cost of the raw lithium is about 1% of the cost of the battery. It's engineering it in a very precise way that's expensive.
  - voodoomagicman 11y ago
    The battery costs $3000 - that is likely a cap on the cost of the work involved in producing it.
    - deleted 11y ago
      [deleted]
    - alkonaut 11y ago
      You'd think, but that depends on how many times you can sell the same battery. As others have said, it's plausible that this is a way for Tesla to make use of used car batteries.
      - mikeash 11y ago
        I really doubt that's true, just because it's too early for it. There are approximately zero used Tesla batteries available right now. The fleet is just too new. Maybe in another ten years.
        alkonaut 11y ago
        When the used batteries start piling up, it's best for tesla if this system is already in place. Entirely possible that this will be new and subsidized batteries initially. They will need to find a use for the old car batteries.
        mikeash 11y ago
        Could be, but they're jumping the gun a lot if that's the main idea. Tesla sales didn't really ramp up until 2014, and the batteries will probably last at least 10 years in the cars themselves. In any case, they wouldn't need to subsidize these batteries. $350/kWh is a pretty decent price, and consistent with estimates of what they cost in Tesla's cars.
        create123 11y ago
        The large packs are priced at $250/kWh which I think is the real news. That means their cost is very likely under $200. Don't think the other car manuf are close to that.
  - beat 11y ago
    Is the precision itself so energy-intensive, though?
- nine_k 11y ago
  Just as a thought experiment, compare the environmental impact of producing a hunk of steel, nickel, lead, gold, plutonium of the same mass. These are vastly different.
at-fates-hands 11y ago
I agree. Strangely, all of these issues were conveniently left out of the article. Not sure everybody knows this, but its not economically feasible to recycle these batteries: "Recycled lithium is as much as five times the cost of lithium produced from the least costly brine based process. It is not competitive for recycling companies to extract lithium from slag, or competitive for the OEMs to buy at higher price points from recycling companies. " Add in the fact there are currently very few dedicated LI recycling companies in the world, let alone in the US: "With lithium recycling in its infancy, there is currently no main recycling infrastructure in the world that treats only automotive Li-ion batteries. A few pilot plants, such as Umicore's Hoboken plant in Belgium that are at a demonstration stage exist. Lack of standardisation in battery chemistries and changing landscape with respect to different elements under research for battery production other than lithium have made evaluation of the recycled value of the components uncertain for the recyclers." source: http://www.waste-management-world.com/articles/print/volume-12/issue-4/features/the-lithium-battery-recycling-challenge.html http://www.waste-management-world.com/articles/print/volume-... Call me skeptical, but I'm not sure Tesla has really given consideration to these issues. Their approach to these obvious issues are not addressed at all in their press release.
- revelation 11y ago
  So I recently needed a special cable to make some old gear work. It was only available from a single source and they charged me an arm and a half for it. Why am I telling you all of this? Because the price of something has very, very, very, very, very little to do with how feasible something is, how much work is required on a fundamental level. So what? Recycling lithium isn't profitable right now this very instant? Because the price is too high? Apart from the circular logic here, this means nothing. (This kind of thinking is disappointingly common here. We will never get anywhere when we do some adhoc "price" analysis on every new technology and obviously deduce it's infeasible and should not be explored. Cars were economically infeasible back when you bought petrol from the pharmacy.)
  - czottmann 11y ago
    Yes. Thank you. I wish I could upvote your comment more than once.
nine_k 11y ago
Lithium mining has relatively little environmental impact: it's mostly evaporation of lithium-rich brines. But lithium is still not cheap. I suppose that a different battery technology, with lower energy density per unit of weight, could be much cheaper with comparable efficiency. But Tesla only has expertise in lithium batteries, so some other manufacturer could use the momentum with a lower-cost offer.
- Tuna-Fish 11y ago
  > But lithium is still not cheap. Lithium is extremely cheap. The cost of the Lithium has practically no impact on the cost of the batteries. Most of the cost of batteries is work. This venture makes sense because as lithium batteries are used, they lose capacity, and thus their specific energy gets worse. At this point, they are no longer very useful for cars, yet still can be used for other things. As Tesla recovers the used batteries from their cars, they can resell them as home batteries.
  - nine_k 11y ago
    Recycling this way batteries that are not good for cars but fine for less demanding applications would be really smart. Is there any indication that they actually do this?
    - pkulak 11y ago
      I think they've been doing it in one-off situations with Solar City now for a while. If they are not doing exactly this with this venture, I'd be surprised.
    - yungchin 11y ago
      Seems they alluded to exactly that some years ago (2008!): http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mythbusters-part-3-recycling-our-non-toxic-battery-packs http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mythbusters-part-3-recycling... "... at some unfortunate point, the ESS will come to the end of its useful life in the application :(. However, it might be possible to use the ESS in other applications. For example, the ESS could be used as a power source for off-grid backup or load leveling. "

giarc 11y ago

Would you not install the battery in a heated place in your house (garage, basement, furnace room)?

danielweber 11y ago
What if it's in the garage and someone hits it with the car and pierces the cells? I didn't see "insurance" anywhere on that Tesla page. Ideally my insurance company won't pitch a fit about about me installing this in my house, but will Tesla guarantee that?
- jws 11y ago
  Does your insurance company allow you to keep one liter of gasoline in your garage? It has the same energy content as the Powerwall, is insanely flammable, is frequently implicated is home fires, and regularly causes human deaths. (Ok, a burning lithium battery will release more energy than its storage capacity, but I'm not finding a nice reference, Tesla knows all about containing cells to prevent chain reactions, and one liter of gasoline is still enough to burn down your whole house.)
  - danielweber 11y ago
    Gas fumes are very flammable, but the gasoline itself will flow down and out of my garage, and the fire would be very easy to contain with a simple garden hose. A gas can also will not light on fire just because it gets hit with a car. It would take malicious use of a gas can -- splashing it on a wall and then lighting it on fire -- to match the default configuration of a Powerwall.
    - jws 11y ago
      Or a vapor reaching an open flame. Common source of human immolation.
    - warfangle 11y ago
      You ever try to put out a gasoline fire with a garden hose?

danielweber 11y ago

The wear and tear on lithium-ion batteries can be significant. It's a big capital cost and every time you cycle it you take a little of its life away. Eventually you have to replace it. And you really need to be using it, because a lithium-ion will still degrade even if its sitting unused on a shelf in a perfect climate-controlled room. Demand shifting seems a much bigger payoff: using your AC to superchill parts of your building overnight (or build up ice packs) when electricity is cheap.

balabaster 11y ago

What I'd like to see is an ability for me to provide a list of appliances that I tend to use in my house (makes/models) along with a "typical" use pattern like "washer, dryer, dishwasher, fridge, freezer, stove, 50" TV, 200W sound system and blu-ray player or cable box frequently get used at the same time" With a usage pattern like that, which of the two batteries would be most useful? would I need multiples wired in series or parallel? is that possible? how long would it last under a load like that? My target is for off-grid use, so ROI isn't as big a concern to me as longevity of power and charging requirements from off-grid power generation.

donpdonp 11y ago
There are easy to use meters such as the Kill-A-Watt for 120V appliances to measure usage directly.
- balabaster 11y ago
  This is good for monitoring single appliances, but it's a pain in the neck to keep moving it from appliance to appliance. Do you know of one that I can attach to my power meter and it'll give me realtime usage, tracking, reports so that I can see my peak, minimum and average draw for the whole house?
  - smithbits 11y ago
    There's a product called the Efergy True Power meter that does exactly that. It measures mains electricity, wirelessly reports to a central server and shows you real time and historical graphs of energy usage at sub-minute resolution. http://efergy.com/us/elite-true-power-meter http://efergy.com/us/elite-true-power-meter

andor436 11y ago

I also live in Michigan, and can tell you it will be a money loser for one major reason: the full cost of the system you install will be added to your local property tax valuation, as the state tax exemption on renewable energy equipment was nullified several years ago and never replaced. In my case I had $500 in taxes added to my annual bill, which outpaces the value of the energy I produce and creates an infinite payback period. Wait until this tax issue is resolved, then it will actually make good sense here. (It's sunnier than most people think!)

maxsilver 11y ago
> the full cost of the system you install will be added to your local property tax valuation Why is that? And are you absolutely certain it's true? I also live in Michigan, and I've never heard of this. I've replaced major appliances before without it impacting my property tax assessment -- including appliances that have cost more than the Tesla Battery pack and been inspected+verified by the city (such as a new 96% efficient furnace). I don't see why adding a Tesla Battery would change property tax assessment any, when adding a $6,000 furnace, $5,000 air conditioner, or a $2,000 refrigerator doesn't.
- andor436 11y ago
  Yes, I am unfortunately. I am in the midst of protesting an assessment now for a system I installed last year. See this pdf (sorry), page 17: http://www.michigan.gov/documents/mpsc/marketbarrierssolarinmi_394662_7.pdf http://www.michigan.gov/documents/mpsc/marketbarrierssolarin... Solar systems are considered "real" property, i.e. property that is permanently attached to the house, and thus subject to taxation.
- walkon 11y ago
  A property would be assessed at a lower value if it didn't have any HVAC appliances installed in it. Since most properties start with such appliances, replacing them or upgrading them to similar, or even more efficient models, is likely considered a nominal effect on property value, i.e. an act of sustaining the properties existing value. A real battery backup system, assuming one didn't already exist on the property, would be considered a significant addition to property value.

DaniFong 11y ago

I wish it did; we are very far from harmonizing all the different utility rates. Once that data is clean up and available, an interactive website should not be too difficult to build. If anyone is interested in doing a paid internship to help us build it, send me a note with a portfolio at dfong@lightsail.com -- I run a compressed air energy storage company.

lotsofmangos 11y ago
Was going to ask if you are ever planning on doing a home system, as although compressed air tanks can be risky, presumably they are slightly less risky than normal gas supplies.
- DaniFong 11y ago
  Compressed air tanks are tested very rigorously; including the gunfire test, bonfire test, impact test, sulfuric acid test, over test, over pressurization test... It is definitely safer than gas supplies, which strike me as an insane idea, especially in San Francisco where it previous burned down the city. We will eventually do a home system. It is in the planning stages
  - lotsofmangos 11y ago
    Thanks for the reply. I have been keeping a close eye on Lightsail and am hugely looking forward to the day when I can install one of your systems. My power bill this winter has been atrocious.