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Unfortunately the original research paper by Berri and Simmons is locked up behind a paywall. But Sailer does seem to make a good point - if you measure QB per
by defen 17y ago
Unfortunately the original research paper by Berri and Simmons is locked up behind a paywall. But Sailer does seem to make a good point - if you measure QB performance on a per-play basis, the low-end of the draft order is going to be dominated by the few Tom Brady's of the world (draft number 199, 3 Super Bowl rings, lots of plays) because most late draft picks don't even get any NFL snaps.
It would be like saying IQ is not correlated with Nobel Prize awards, if you only look at people who have earned PhD's.
- protomyth 17y agoActually the Pro Bowl thing might not be bad. Am I missing something or is Gladwell not taking in account the fact that higher draft pick QBs play on worse teams then QBs taken later in the round? Also, QBs taken later in the round will probably be allowed a season to learn and mature as opposed to first round picks who will play right away because of the large salary.