4 ms·

I have a small theory about cars and low birth rate. If you look at developed nations with well developed public transportation (which means less need for priv

by dba7dba 12y ago

I have a small theory about cars and low birth rate. If you look at developed nations with well developed public transportation (which means less need for private cars), you generally see lower birth rate. Really low. Look at Japan. S Korea. Europe. However developed nations with less developed public transportation (meaning more ownership of private cars), you generally see higher birth rate. Examples are most of US (excluding NYC), Canada, Aus. I personally think young moms just decide to have less kids if their option of traveling within the city is limited to public transportation. And with young kids, you do have to travel more than usual to get to doctors office, school, activities etc. When you have a sedan/suv/minivan, traveling with kids is much more tolerable. You don't have to carry everything on your back or in your hands. You can strap them into car seats once and that's just about the only time you have to worry about it.

exelius 12y ago
I think you're drawing conclusions from coincidence. If I had to pick a reason for the disparity, it's that public transit and dense city centers make less sense in countries with large, rural areas. Rural areas tend to have lower levels of education, and level of education has been linked with birth rate (specifically, higher female educational achievement leads to lower birth rates). The three areas you list as "developed nations with well developed public transportation" are all compact and densely populated. The three you listed as "less developed public transit" are much larger, with a significantly higher rural population. I would bet that if you normalized for education, you would see any disparities between your cohorts disappear.
- whatusername 12y ago
  Australia has quite a high urbanization rate (89.2%): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_by_country http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_by_country
vorg 12y ago
> Examples are most of US (excluding NYC), Canada, Aus. You chose as your example the colonized English-speaking world, a.k.a. the U.S. (including its 51st and 52nd states)?
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
- guard-of-terra 12y ago
  "you can't pick up chicks if your ride is public transport" On the contrary, you don't even have to pick them up - they're already seated and waiting.
gluggymug 12y ago
"When you have a sedan/suv/minivan, traveling with kids is much more tolerable. You don't have to carry everything on your back or in your hands. You can strap them into car seats once and that's just about the only time you have to worry about it." From 1st hand experience the main problem is finding a cheap parking spot near your destination. Then you still need the pram or the stroller to get from that spot to where you are going. That pram (or more specifically the carry tray underneath) is like a pack mule for all the junk that your kids need. Can Google make an auto driving pram please? Something that can handle getting on/off public transport.
revelation 12y ago
http://tylervigen.com/ http://tylervigen.com/ Fresh correlations daily!
brc 12y ago
I would say that high density cities have a high cost if living, and high cost of living impacts the birth rate. It's also the case that young urban populations don't get the discount rate on children right. A lot of young urban people see children as a very high cost, and see no benefit. The benefit of children is all in the long tail. Many people who say 'kids are expensive and too much effort' have failed to factor in what happens when they get old and lonely. Anyone pondering this question should consider how much your parents like getting a phone call, then project forwards in their life where this possibility of joy is eliminated, forever. You don't even have to see adult children to get joy from them.
- dba7dba 12y ago
  "Many people who say 'kids are expensive and too much effort' have failed to factor in what happens when they get old and lonely." Many young people don't seem to think that far ahead. No, I'm not pointing fingers at anyone. I was once young too.

by dba7dba 12y ago

exelius 12y ago

I think you're drawing conclusions from coincidence. If I had to pick a reason for the disparity, it's that public transit and dense city centers make less sense in countries with large, rural areas. Rural areas tend to have lower levels of education, and level of education has been linked with birth rate (specifically, higher female educational achievement leads to lower birth rates). The three areas you list as "developed nations with well developed public transportation" are all compact and densely populated. The three you listed as "less developed public transit" are much larger, with a significantly higher rural population. I would bet that if you normalized for education, you would see any disparities between your cohorts disappear.

whatusername 12y ago
Australia has quite a high urbanization rate (89.2%): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_by_country http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_by_country

vorg 12y ago

> Examples are most of US (excluding NYC), Canada, Aus. You chose as your example the colonized English-speaking world, a.k.a. the U.S. (including its 51st and 52nd states)?

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

guard-of-terra 12y ago
"you can't pick up chicks if your ride is public transport" On the contrary, you don't even have to pick them up - they're already seated and waiting.

gluggymug 12y ago

"When you have a sedan/suv/minivan, traveling with kids is much more tolerable. You don't have to carry everything on your back or in your hands. You can strap them into car seats once and that's just about the only time you have to worry about it." From 1st hand experience the main problem is finding a cheap parking spot near your destination. Then you still need the pram or the stroller to get from that spot to where you are going. That pram (or more specifically the carry tray underneath) is like a pack mule for all the junk that your kids need. Can Google make an auto driving pram please? Something that can handle getting on/off public transport.

revelation 12y ago

http://tylervigen.com/ http://tylervigen.com/ Fresh correlations daily!

brc 12y ago

I would say that high density cities have a high cost if living, and high cost of living impacts the birth rate. It's also the case that young urban populations don't get the discount rate on children right. A lot of young urban people see children as a very high cost, and see no benefit. The benefit of children is all in the long tail. Many people who say 'kids are expensive and too much effort' have failed to factor in what happens when they get old and lonely. Anyone pondering this question should consider how much your parents like getting a phone call, then project forwards in their life where this possibility of joy is eliminated, forever. You don't even have to see adult children to get joy from them.

dba7dba 12y ago
"Many people who say 'kids are expensive and too much effort' have failed to factor in what happens when they get old and lonely." Many young people don't seem to think that far ahead. No, I'm not pointing fingers at anyone. I was once young too.