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The math is still wrong! A million to one odds and a full USA population database means the 300 people are perfect matches, open and shut convictions! There was
by sukilot 12y ago
The math is still wrong!
A million to one odds and a full USA population database means the 300 people are perfect matches, open and shut convictions! There was famous case that actually won (for the good guys) by taking this math to court.
These forensic anyalses do bad statistics (wildly wrong priors) and compute wildly wrong posteriors.
- capnrefsmmat 12y agoThat's true, but they'll often report random match probabilities like "one in 930 sextillion", which are absurd. Do you have a reference to the case you mention? I'd like to read the history of it.