But that contradicts the statements of a trained mathematician! </sarcasm> I'm not sure that "NASA / BBC / America" are trained seismologists, but if they're

But that contradicts the statements of a trained mathematician! </sarcasm> I'm not sure that "NASA / BBC / America" are trained seismologists, but if they're simply reporting the predictions of someone who really understands the conditions of the subduction zone in the Katmandu area, I'd tend to believe what they're saying.