4 ms·

I think one of the big lessons about prediction is– avoid dramatic predictions that something is NOT or NEVER going to happen (Internet, iPhones), and avoid pre

I think one of the big lessons about prediction is– avoid dramatic predictions that something is NOT or NEVER going to happen (Internet, iPhones), and avoid predicting that something WILL totally change the world (Segways). Better to be cautious and talk about the underlying principles. (People are always going to be interested in cheaper products, faster shipping, being able to do more with less, communicating with one another, etc.) Of course, this assumes you're interested in being accurate in your predictions. Lots of people get by great with making faulty predictions, as long as they don't have to bet their own livelihoods on their predictions.

coldtea 12y ago
>People are always going to be interested in cheaper products Ironically this has been the constant anti-Apple motto since 2003, and it has been disproven time and again, with cheaper alternatives that would "kill" (the iBook, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Air, etc) failing in the market. It's not that people don't like cheap, but it's not the be all end all, and it can't be used for certain markets that are driven by other needs (including vanity).
- visakanv 12y ago
  Oh, yes, absolutely. To refine that statement a little– I don't mean that people won't want iPhones and Macbooks and Apple Watches. The latest Macbook looks so amazing, I totally want one! What I mean is that if two products were IDENTICAL, people would want the cheaper version. The way Apple stays ahead is by ensuring that their products are always better in SOME way (even if it's "just aesthetics" or "just branding"– it translates to real value to the customer.) This applies more obviously to commodities– say, equally good shaving razors, equally good refrigerators and so on. You're totally right that it's not the be-all-end-all.
- sukilot 12y ago
  Apple is phenomenally profitable but only dominates the market in wealthy sub markets.

coldtea 12y ago

>People are always going to be interested in cheaper products Ironically this has been the constant anti-Apple motto since 2003, and it has been disproven time and again, with cheaper alternatives that would "kill" (the iBook, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Air, etc) failing in the market. It's not that people don't like cheap, but it's not the be all end all, and it can't be used for certain markets that are driven by other needs (including vanity).

visakanv 12y ago
Oh, yes, absolutely. To refine that statement a little– I don't mean that people won't want iPhones and Macbooks and Apple Watches. The latest Macbook looks so amazing, I totally want one! What I mean is that if two products were IDENTICAL, people would want the cheaper version. The way Apple stays ahead is by ensuring that their products are always better in SOME way (even if it's "just aesthetics" or "just branding"– it translates to real value to the customer.) This applies more obviously to commodities– say, equally good shaving razors, equally good refrigerators and so on. You're totally right that it's not the be-all-end-all.
sukilot 12y ago
Apple is phenomenally profitable but only dominates the market in wealthy sub markets.