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Yeah. That's the classic thing to be said about all failed predictions, isn't it? They're all rigorously accurate... within the wrong models. Relatively harmle
by visakanv 12y ago
Yeah. That's the classic thing to be said about all failed predictions, isn't it? They're all rigorously accurate... within the wrong models.
Relatively harmless when we're armchair theorists wondering if the Apple Watch is going to take off or not, but devastating when we make projections about economies, finance, housing prices, etc.
PS: Also, the "anybody can put together the same thing" argument has been used to discredit all sorts of things, hasn't it? Dropbox, Instagram... It reminds me of that joke about Modern art. "It's so simple, I could've done it." "Yeah, but you didn't."
- Retra 12y agoEverything is obvious in hindsight. People actually know what heat is these days, but for most of human history, we didn't. So it's easy to imagine you could have invented a steam engine in 1400 or something. But nobody did, and there's a reason for that.
- thaumasiotes 12y agohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeolipile http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeolipile > In the 1st century AD, Hero of Alexandria described the [aeolipile] > The aeolipile Hero described is considered to be the first recorded steam engine or reaction steam turbine
- sukilot 12y agoMost inventions are imagined or prototyped by many people far in advance of a few time points when all the ingredients are ripe for large-scale execution.