4 ms·

The labeling of Kennedy as the swing vote is mostly a fairly recent narrative invention of the press in my opinion; it makes for a more exciting story to have t

The labeling of Kennedy as the swing vote is mostly a fairly recent narrative invention of the press in my opinion; it makes for a more exciting story to have the decision hanging in the balance with one wildcard that could go either way. But while he may be slightly less predictable than the other four conservatives when it comes to decisions that split along left-right lines, he's still pretty reliably in the conservative camp. Before O'Connor retired, she was considered the swing vote, and Kennedy was lumped in with the conservatives, for the same 4-4-1 breakdown; they just shuffle around the ostensible camps to keep it that way whenever the composition of the court changes. (Also, for what it's worth, I think lots of people who don't follow the Court closely would be surprised at how few decisions are actually decided 5-4 along left-right lines. The majority of decisions, even under the Roberts court, are unanimous, and 6-3 or 7-2 decisions are also quite common, as are 5-4 splits along some axis other than the "expected" one. Again, I think the perception of political polarization, while not entirely undeserved, is significantly overemphasized in media coverage.)

byuu 11y ago
The problem is that the 5-4 splits are almost always on the really, really majorly important issues like Citizens United (bad), VRA (bad), DOMA (good), etc. The exact issues that absolutely should not be partisan are the ones that seemingly always are.
- alexqgb 11y ago
  What's notable about two of those cases is that they're about frustrating the power of the electorate. The value of the SCOTUS to Conservatives is that it provides the ultimate bulwark against the power of the vote, which - in a fully franchised system - would banish contemporary Conservatism from national politics completely. If our warped electoral system finally crumbles under a liberal court, it will take a lot more that a restoration of a Conservative majority to reimpose it. It's not overstating the case to say that losing the next Presidential election will mark the Conservative movement's final chapter. This is the movement that started with Barry Goldwater, came to fruition under Reagan, began to wobble badly when Gingrich became Speaker of the House, and shit the bed completely under Bush. Since then, we've been living in an interregnum. The old order is damaged beyond all repair, but still had enough residual strength and momentum to keep its replacement from solidifying. But if they lose the Court - which they are sure to do if Dems win the White House in 2016, the electoral reforms that will be the death of them have a clear path to victory. Reduced to total political impotence, the bubble of lunacy, fear, hate, and anger that keeps platforms like Fox News in business will finally deflate. Remnants will exist, to be sure, but they'll be limited to control of a shrinking number of economically backwards red states, and even that won't last for more than a generation. Whatever is left after that will be taken about as seriously as the Westboro Baptist Church or the KKK.

byuu 11y ago

The problem is that the 5-4 splits are almost always on the really, really majorly important issues like Citizens United (bad), VRA (bad), DOMA (good), etc. The exact issues that absolutely should not be partisan are the ones that seemingly always are.

alexqgb 11y ago
What's notable about two of those cases is that they're about frustrating the power of the electorate. The value of the SCOTUS to Conservatives is that it provides the ultimate bulwark against the power of the vote, which - in a fully franchised system - would banish contemporary Conservatism from national politics completely. If our warped electoral system finally crumbles under a liberal court, it will take a lot more that a restoration of a Conservative majority to reimpose it. It's not overstating the case to say that losing the next Presidential election will mark the Conservative movement's final chapter. This is the movement that started with Barry Goldwater, came to fruition under Reagan, began to wobble badly when Gingrich became Speaker of the House, and shit the bed completely under Bush. Since then, we've been living in an interregnum. The old order is damaged beyond all repair, but still had enough residual strength and momentum to keep its replacement from solidifying. But if they lose the Court - which they are sure to do if Dems win the White House in 2016, the electoral reforms that will be the death of them have a clear path to victory. Reduced to total political impotence, the bubble of lunacy, fear, hate, and anger that keeps platforms like Fox News in business will finally deflate. Remnants will exist, to be sure, but they'll be limited to control of a shrinking number of economically backwards red states, and even that won't last for more than a generation. Whatever is left after that will be taken about as seriously as the Westboro Baptist Church or the KKK.