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I have a solar startup that specifically focuses on automating interaction with utilities, and the excitement and ambition in the solar industry right now is of
by diafygi 12y ago
I have a solar startup that specifically focuses on automating interaction with utilities, and the excitement and ambition in the solar industry right now is off the charts. There is an unbelievable amount of momentum in favor of solar, and most solar companies see these problems as totally solvable. Hawaii is seen as a microcosm for the way the rest of the U.S. will be in 10 years or less.
Here's some of the things that solar has going for it:
1. The Governor of California recently set a mandate to reach 50% renewables by 2030[1]. We want to hit this target in ten years or less.
2. The Department of Energy's Sunshot initiative is funding solar technology and software development to drive the installed cost below $1 per watt by 2017[2]. So far, we are on track to hit these targets.
3. Batteries are getting super cheap, which will turn solar into a non-intermittent source and allow solar+storage to be just as cheap as grid prices[3]. In fact, there is actually quite a bit of worry about grid defection (we are starting to see this Hawaii)[4].
4. Wall Street is funding solar projects at a massive rate[5]. The bottleneck right now in solar is finding customers, not financiers.
5. The federal subsidy for solar is expiring in 2017, but the industry is on track to absorb the cost and continue to thrive without any subsidy[6]. This will make us much harder to kill off politically.
6. The advent of community solar will solve the renting problem, where renters be able to buy pieces of a remote solar farm since they don't own their roofs[7]. This opens up the solar market to serve the entire electricity-using population, not just the building owners.
What will be hard:
Stranded assets. Solar is growing so quickly that it will soon be able to replace the capacity of existing fossil-based generators that still have lifespan[8]. Investors in those assets will see them stranded. This will start with coal and natural gas plants over the next 10 years, but as batteries get cheaper and electric cars get more prevalent solar will start stranding oil assets[9].
This is where things get hard. Utilities are traditionally pretty bad competing (since they usually don't have to), but oil companies are another story. They are very used to ruthless competition and have a lot of experience bribing their way into governments. We are expecting very heavy push back from oil after 2025 because electric vehicles risk leaving already purchased oil in the ground.
I, for one, can't wait until we fight that fight. It is the fight that our generation will be remembered for.
P.S. The entire solar industry is hiring (including my startup).
[1]: http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-renewable-goals-20150108-story.html http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-renewable-goal...
[2]: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/sunshot/pdfs/dpw_white_paper.pdf https://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/sunshot/pdfs/dpw_white_pa...
[3]: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-big-and-cheap/ http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...
[4]: http://www.rmi.org/electricity_grid_defection http://www.rmi.org/electricity_grid_defection
[5]: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/12/23/why-wall-street-is-learning-to-love-solar-energy.aspx http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/12/23/why-wall-st...
[6]: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/What-Happens-When-the-ITC-Expires https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/What-Happens-Wh...
[7]: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Solar-Summit-Slide-Show-The-Evolution-of-Solar https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Solar-Summit-Sl...
[8]: http://www.utilitydive.com/news/jon-wellinghoff-utilities-are-not-driving-clean-energy-growth/292912/ http://www.utilitydive.com/news/jon-wellinghoff-utilities-ar... Disclosure: Jon is one of our advisors.
[9]: http://theenergycollective.com/energydeborah/2216626/podcast-energy-247-are-stranded-assets-oil-and-gas-myth-or-reality http://theenergycollective.com/energydeborah/2216626/podcast...