Nate Silver, not Nick. There are problems with liquidity and volume, and the general difficulty of getting money in and out given that these services tend to b

Nate Silver, not Nick. There are problems with liquidity and volume, and the general difficulty of getting money in and out given that these services tend to be banned in the US. I once saw a clear opportunity for arbitrage on Intrade, when the currently-bid odds that 8 particular Republican candidates would win the general election added up to more than the odds that any Republican would win the election. But acting on it would have required getting a large amount of money to Ireland for the opportunity to make a small amount of money, and fees would have eaten all the profits. In fact, some of the bets were clearly stupid on their own, and yet you couldn't really profit by betting against them. Someone would be bidding 1% odds that a candidate would win the election when that candidate had already dropped out and endorsed someone else. If dropping out didn't send their odds to 0, what would? You could make 1% profit but it could take until the election to collect it, so you might as well just put that money in a savings account. But, yes, if prediction markets were popular, high volume, and legal in the US, then you could make money off of some of their biases.