16 ms·

The Missing Mt. Gox Bitcoins

168 points by dwwoelfel 12y ago

Andrew_Quentin 12y ago
The author states that the bitcoins were stolen over time, however, the graph shows that between June and November 2011 there is a gap due to missing data. It then opens in November 2011 with a huge gap between actual btc and expected btc of some 500k bitcoins. Practically almost all the "missing" bitcoins. Suggesting therefore that either they were "lost" sometime between June-November 2011 or they were hidden at the time somewhere on blockchain or that the authors have made some sort of mistake. I am not sure how such a huge amount of bitcoins can be "lost" within such a short period of 4 months. Leaving open the option that there may be some mix up with the internal data or that the analysis is incomplete.
- mikkom 12y ago
  Doesn't this cover it quite well? > The "gap" in the left-most part of the graph is caused by MtGox bitcoins that we temporarily lose track of (likely as they pass through old cold storage that we have not yet mapped out). They later reappear in known addresses, which marks the "end" of the gap.
  - wongarsu 12y ago
    And the third graph (the difference between observed and expected BTC holdings) nicely supports that. Almost all of the BTC from that gap reappear.
    - jstanley 12y ago
      He's talking about right after that gap. At the start of the gap the disparity between real and expected holdings is small, but right after the gap, the disparity is huge, implying a lot of btc were lost during the gap, or a mistake has been made in the analysis.
      - wongarsu 12y ago
        Yes, almost all of the ~600BTC from that huge increase in expected BTC holdings during Jul-Oct 2011 are unaccounted for. But this seems completely orthogonal to the fact that they loose track of ~450BTC during that timeframe, which this "gap" is about. Those are two seperate events in the same timeframe: The ~450BTC which cause the gap all reappear in November 2011, while the disparity is growing at a rate that perfectly matches the disparity growth after the gap (see third graph). Also these ~500BTC aren't "almost all" "missing" bitcoins, but only half of the bitcoins they can't account for.
        makomk 12y ago
        The problem is that they have no way of knowing how many BTC they actually lost track of during that period or whether all of it did reappear. For those 5 months they have no idea which addresses Mt Gox was keeping the vast majority of their BTC in or how much they had, and if any funds remained in those addresses after November 2011 the whole argument breaks down. They're assuming that none did because the amount of funds in addresses they know about after the gap is roughly the same as before the gap - but the amount of BTC that Mt Gox's accounts claimed they have doubled during that time period, and there's no way to tell whether Mt Gox actually had a shortfall or there was more BTC but only a portion of it got moved to known addresses.
  - mrb 12y ago
    > Doesn't this cover it quite well? No it doesn't. What Andrew_Quentin meant is that even ignoring the gap (grey line) or taking it into account (red line), both show that 500k BTC are missing by Nov 2011, and this all happened in a mere 5 months, between Jun and Nov: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Np_kU7aOZOY/VS_HpjyMq2I/AAAAAAAAC3U/wVZOze5fx4o/s1600/surplus_btc_holdings.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Np_kU7aOZOY/VS_HpjyMq2I/AAAAAAAAC3... I find it surprising that WizSec doesn't advance the following theory, but it is likely that the same hacker from the disastrous June 2011 hacking incident (which I blogged about; http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=55 http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=55) is responsible for stealing the MtGox bitcoins which started disappearing right around this time.
wongarsu 12y ago
Something I find eye-catching is that from Jul-Oct 2011, just shortly after the proof of solvency, the expected BTC holdings double while the observed BTC holdings don't seem to move very much. If that was a random hacker attack it would be exceptionally good timing.
wongarsu 12y ago
How do they know that those BTC went to exchanges? The probably can check which BTC went back to Mt Gox, but how do they know that a particular receiving address belonged to e.g. Bitcoinica?
- FatalLogic 12y ago
  One probable method would be to look at the addresses that other people used to deposit to an exchange. Many people make this public, for various reasons. I assume the investigators would see a pattern of many small deposits being moved directly from those deposit addresses into the exchange's hot and cold wallets, which contained large amounts of money. That pattern could be recognized and the exchange's main wallets identified beyond reasonable doubt. Withdrawals from the exchange could also be tracked, I assume. Probably there is more sophisticated analysis of addresses clusters involved too.
- abrkn 12y ago
  http://www.walletexplorer.com/ http://www.walletexplorer.com/
frevd 12y ago
How do you convert big amounts of bitcoins into cash, even over time, without leaving a trace? Isn't there bank account information involved leading to individuals, which a criminal investigation could request?
- JoeAltmaier 12y ago
  Fundamentally, Bitcoin is about not having any of that info. If it were a responsible financial institution, then there would have been federal regulations regarding reporting, reserves etc. But the miracle of bitcoins is, somehow it isn't subject to any reasonable oversight.
  - 07d046 12y ago
    Yes, almost all of the advantages of Bitcoin are because it currently has practically no regulatory oversight. If it was to get mainstream usage, regulation would also grow, and at least if you want to play in licit channels, it would be almost exactly the same as what already exists. Being your own bank is much too hard and risky for the average consumer, and payment systems that provide useful consumer protections like chargebacks would be formed, so in the end, most people would be doing their banking at BitChase and using a BitVisa credit card.
    - yc1010 12y ago
      I like how the reason for "chargebacks" is often touted as "consumer protection" when the real reason it to line the pockets of the credit card duopoly and ensure the merchant always gets screwed. In many developed countries there are consumer protection laws which entitle the buyer to Replacement, Repair, Refund (in that order usually), so a merchant not adhering to these laws could endup in serious legal trouble as is. Bitcoin at least gives a choice to both buyers and sellers just like plain old cash does Bitcoin, Cash and Traditional Banking (SEPA etc) provide an alternative for commerce where one is free from Visa/Mastecard stupidities and ensure that the Visa/Mastercard duopoly is actually forced to compete and not grow into a more dominant and more abusive entities than they already are. They provide an alternative to being tracked and data-mined and having personal information sold to god knows who :( People do not value their privacy until they lose it, and by then its too late. * Cash allows me to pay (quite anonymously and without fear of being an entry in some datamine) for things locally * SEPA bank transfer allows me to pay EUwide for goods and services reasonably quickly and for no fees (thank you EU! credit card duopoly must hate SEPA) * Bitcoin allows me to instantly pay world wide with ultralow fees, its basically electronic Cash (credit card duopoly do hate bitcoin with a passion, just yesterday they prevented neteller from bridging bitcoin and credit card worlds which IMHO is anticompetitive! http://blog.neteller.com/2015/04/new-deposit-option-bitcoin/ http://blog.neteller.com/2015/04/new-deposit-option-bitcoin/) I forgot the last time I had to use a credit card (or paypal and their "consumer protection") in the last year, and my life both personal and business is easier and better for it.
fugyk 12y ago
Why hasn't Mt. Gox disclosed what they know about the attack?
- Mahn 12y ago
  Reportedly because the police is still investigating the case and publicizing everything could harm the (slim) chances of finding the criminals.
lifeisstillgood 12y ago
What I take away from this is that despite a totally open and visible accounting system (the blockchain) it is still possible to hide transactions - no wonder we have been stuffed preventing tax evasion.
bewaretheirs 12y ago
The author says "MtGox operated at fractional reserve for years". A better and more conventional way to put it: it was insolvent for years.
- dec0dedab0de 12y ago
  aren't they essentially the same thing?
  - haberman 12y ago
    When you operate a fractional reserve, other people/businesses owe you at least as much money as you owe to your deposit accountholders. When you're insolvent, you can't cover your obligations. Even if you called in every loan you'd made, it still wouldn't give you enough cash that all your deposit account customers could withdraw all their money. Calling Mt. Gox a "fractional reserve" is giving them way too much credit.
    - wongarsu 12y ago
      Being insolvent means that they can't cover your obligations right now. If you deposit 100BTC in my wallet, I invest it for a year and you want it back right now I'm insolvent because I can't pay you right now; despite my books being perfectly balanced. In the event of everyone wanting to withdraw their money at once, operating a fractional reserve and being insolvent are basically the same (unless you can instantly get the money out of your investments). That's a major reason why fractional reserve banking is frowned upon in the bitcoin ecosystem.
      - roblev 12y ago
        Fractional reserve banking can be done with bitcoin just as with any underlying "base asset" such as gold or Federal Reserve Banknotes. It just means that the banks can lend most of the asset, and must keep back a fraction for liquidity purposes (in case a depositor wants some of their asset back). In many ways Fractional Reserve Banking would be much more risky with bitcoin than with banknotes; with banknotes at least there is a lender-of-last-resort central bank. The central bank can create additional money at will to lend to a bank that is in a liquidity crisis, to see it through the crisis. With bitcoin, there is no such operator. Now if nobody ever lends or borrows bitcoin, then there will be no issue - but lending and borrowing has been quite central to commerce over the last couple of centuries, with mostly decent effects. Personally I'm not sure bitcoin economics are that well thought out!
Animats 12y ago
It's embarrassing for the Tokyo Metropolitan Police that they haven't cracked this case yet. They're one of the biggest police departments in the world and have extensive resources. Yes, their in-house computer crime department is new, but they could draw on expertise at the national level or from outside Japan.
- damian2000 12y ago
  I read a book recently that went into some detail about tokyo police's methods regarding a series of murders in the 1990s/2000s. In that account at least they didn't seem very compentent in their investigative skills - they were largely focused on getting confessions from people. Probably not relevant to the MtGox case. http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7555367-tokyo-hostess http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7555367-tokyo-hostess
Sealy 12y ago
Thank you for these posts. We need to keep awareness of the issue as high as possible as it will become easier and easier for both the forces and liquidators to dilute the funds left for payout down to nothing over time.
sellcvv2015 12y ago
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PRICE OF SHIPPING (Iphone/Ipad/Laptop) The price of transportation of high-end electronics - Ship Macbook = 120$ - Ship Iphone 5 (world/64gb) = 100$ - Ship Iphone 5s(world/64gb) = 150$ - Ship Iphone 6 (world/64gb) = 250$ - Ship Iphone 6 Plus (world/64gb) = 300$ - Ship Samsung Galaxy s4 = 100$ - Ship Samsung Galaxy s5 = 140$ ===> Transit time from 2 to 4 days (Every 12 hours will send a ship tracking) ===> My Contact Information: - Yahoo: ICQ133313323@yahoo.com - ICQ : 133313323 (Best Hacker) - Gmail: ICQ133313323@gmail.com BUSINESS RULES # Before make business or add my ID let's read carefull my rules because i really hate Spammer, Ripper and Scammer 1. With me I never give free test or screenshot. Business with me, first is TRUST me, not trust don't contact ! 2. Don't ask me payment after.dai 3. I always checked all stuff and update new cvv fresh for daily offer. 4. I will have change with cvv if not good or not work. 5. Other stuff you can buy 1 or minimum balance to test ! 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168 points by dwwoelfel 12y ago

The author states that the bitcoins were stolen over time, however, the graph shows that between June and November 2011 there is a gap due to missing data. It then opens in November 2011 with a huge gap between actual btc and expected btc of some 500k bitcoins. Practically almost all the "missing" bitcoins. Suggesting therefore that either they were "lost" sometime between June-November 2011 or they were hidden at the time somewhere on blockchain or that the authors have made some sort of mistake. I am not sure how such a huge amount of bitcoins can be "lost" within such a short period of 4 months. Leaving open the option that there may be some mix up with the internal data or that the analysis is incomplete.

mikkom 12y ago
Doesn't this cover it quite well? > The "gap" in the left-most part of the graph is caused by MtGox bitcoins that we temporarily lose track of (likely as they pass through old cold storage that we have not yet mapped out). They later reappear in known addresses, which marks the "end" of the gap.
- wongarsu 12y ago
  And the third graph (the difference between observed and expected BTC holdings) nicely supports that. Almost all of the BTC from that gap reappear.
  - jstanley 12y ago
    He's talking about right after that gap. At the start of the gap the disparity between real and expected holdings is small, but right after the gap, the disparity is huge, implying a lot of btc were lost during the gap, or a mistake has been made in the analysis.
    - wongarsu 12y ago
      Yes, almost all of the ~600BTC from that huge increase in expected BTC holdings during Jul-Oct 2011 are unaccounted for. But this seems completely orthogonal to the fact that they loose track of ~450BTC during that timeframe, which this "gap" is about. Those are two seperate events in the same timeframe: The ~450BTC which cause the gap all reappear in November 2011, while the disparity is growing at a rate that perfectly matches the disparity growth after the gap (see third graph). Also these ~500BTC aren't "almost all" "missing" bitcoins, but only half of the bitcoins they can't account for.
      - makomk 12y ago
        The problem is that they have no way of knowing how many BTC they actually lost track of during that period or whether all of it did reappear. For those 5 months they have no idea which addresses Mt Gox was keeping the vast majority of their BTC in or how much they had, and if any funds remained in those addresses after November 2011 the whole argument breaks down. They're assuming that none did because the amount of funds in addresses they know about after the gap is roughly the same as before the gap - but the amount of BTC that Mt Gox's accounts claimed they have doubled during that time period, and there's no way to tell whether Mt Gox actually had a shortfall or there was more BTC but only a portion of it got moved to known addresses.
- mrb 12y ago
  > Doesn't this cover it quite well? No it doesn't. What Andrew_Quentin meant is that even ignoring the gap (grey line) or taking it into account (red line), both show that 500k BTC are missing by Nov 2011, and this all happened in a mere 5 months, between Jun and Nov: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Np_kU7aOZOY/VS_HpjyMq2I/AAAAAAAAC3U/wVZOze5fx4o/s1600/surplus_btc_holdings.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Np_kU7aOZOY/VS_HpjyMq2I/AAAAAAAAC3... I find it surprising that WizSec doesn't advance the following theory, but it is likely that the same hacker from the disastrous June 2011 hacking incident (which I blogged about; http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=55 http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=55) is responsible for stealing the MtGox bitcoins which started disappearing right around this time.

wongarsu 12y ago

Something I find eye-catching is that from Jul-Oct 2011, just shortly after the proof of solvency, the expected BTC holdings double while the observed BTC holdings don't seem to move very much. If that was a random hacker attack it would be exceptionally good timing.

wongarsu 12y ago

How do they know that those BTC went to exchanges? The probably can check which BTC went back to Mt Gox, but how do they know that a particular receiving address belonged to e.g. Bitcoinica?

FatalLogic 12y ago
One probable method would be to look at the addresses that other people used to deposit to an exchange. Many people make this public, for various reasons. I assume the investigators would see a pattern of many small deposits being moved directly from those deposit addresses into the exchange's hot and cold wallets, which contained large amounts of money. That pattern could be recognized and the exchange's main wallets identified beyond reasonable doubt. Withdrawals from the exchange could also be tracked, I assume. Probably there is more sophisticated analysis of addresses clusters involved too.
abrkn 12y ago
http://www.walletexplorer.com/ http://www.walletexplorer.com/

frevd 12y ago

How do you convert big amounts of bitcoins into cash, even over time, without leaving a trace? Isn't there bank account information involved leading to individuals, which a criminal investigation could request?

JoeAltmaier 12y ago
Fundamentally, Bitcoin is about not having any of that info. If it were a responsible financial institution, then there would have been federal regulations regarding reporting, reserves etc. But the miracle of bitcoins is, somehow it isn't subject to any reasonable oversight.
- 07d046 12y ago
  Yes, almost all of the advantages of Bitcoin are because it currently has practically no regulatory oversight. If it was to get mainstream usage, regulation would also grow, and at least if you want to play in licit channels, it would be almost exactly the same as what already exists. Being your own bank is much too hard and risky for the average consumer, and payment systems that provide useful consumer protections like chargebacks would be formed, so in the end, most people would be doing their banking at BitChase and using a BitVisa credit card.
  - yc1010 12y ago
    I like how the reason for "chargebacks" is often touted as "consumer protection" when the real reason it to line the pockets of the credit card duopoly and ensure the merchant always gets screwed. In many developed countries there are consumer protection laws which entitle the buyer to Replacement, Repair, Refund (in that order usually), so a merchant not adhering to these laws could endup in serious legal trouble as is. Bitcoin at least gives a choice to both buyers and sellers just like plain old cash does Bitcoin, Cash and Traditional Banking (SEPA etc) provide an alternative for commerce where one is free from Visa/Mastecard stupidities and ensure that the Visa/Mastercard duopoly is actually forced to compete and not grow into a more dominant and more abusive entities than they already are. They provide an alternative to being tracked and data-mined and having personal information sold to god knows who :( People do not value their privacy until they lose it, and by then its too late. * Cash allows me to pay (quite anonymously and without fear of being an entry in some datamine) for things locally * SEPA bank transfer allows me to pay EUwide for goods and services reasonably quickly and for no fees (thank you EU! credit card duopoly must hate SEPA) * Bitcoin allows me to instantly pay world wide with ultralow fees, its basically electronic Cash (credit card duopoly do hate bitcoin with a passion, just yesterday they prevented neteller from bridging bitcoin and credit card worlds which IMHO is anticompetitive! http://blog.neteller.com/2015/04/new-deposit-option-bitcoin/ http://blog.neteller.com/2015/04/new-deposit-option-bitcoin/) I forgot the last time I had to use a credit card (or paypal and their "consumer protection") in the last year, and my life both personal and business is easier and better for it.

fugyk 12y ago

Why hasn't Mt. Gox disclosed what they know about the attack?

Mahn 12y ago
Reportedly because the police is still investigating the case and publicizing everything could harm the (slim) chances of finding the criminals.

lifeisstillgood 12y ago

What I take away from this is that despite a totally open and visible accounting system (the blockchain) it is still possible to hide transactions - no wonder we have been stuffed preventing tax evasion.

bewaretheirs 12y ago

The author says "MtGox operated at fractional reserve for years". A better and more conventional way to put it: it was insolvent for years.

dec0dedab0de 12y ago
aren't they essentially the same thing?
- haberman 12y ago
  When you operate a fractional reserve, other people/businesses owe you at least as much money as you owe to your deposit accountholders. When you're insolvent, you can't cover your obligations. Even if you called in every loan you'd made, it still wouldn't give you enough cash that all your deposit account customers could withdraw all their money. Calling Mt. Gox a "fractional reserve" is giving them way too much credit.
  - wongarsu 12y ago
    Being insolvent means that they can't cover your obligations right now. If you deposit 100BTC in my wallet, I invest it for a year and you want it back right now I'm insolvent because I can't pay you right now; despite my books being perfectly balanced. In the event of everyone wanting to withdraw their money at once, operating a fractional reserve and being insolvent are basically the same (unless you can instantly get the money out of your investments). That's a major reason why fractional reserve banking is frowned upon in the bitcoin ecosystem.
    - roblev 12y ago
      Fractional reserve banking can be done with bitcoin just as with any underlying "base asset" such as gold or Federal Reserve Banknotes. It just means that the banks can lend most of the asset, and must keep back a fraction for liquidity purposes (in case a depositor wants some of their asset back). In many ways Fractional Reserve Banking would be much more risky with bitcoin than with banknotes; with banknotes at least there is a lender-of-last-resort central bank. The central bank can create additional money at will to lend to a bank that is in a liquidity crisis, to see it through the crisis. With bitcoin, there is no such operator. Now if nobody ever lends or borrows bitcoin, then there will be no issue - but lending and borrowing has been quite central to commerce over the last couple of centuries, with mostly decent effects. Personally I'm not sure bitcoin economics are that well thought out!

Animats 12y ago

It's embarrassing for the Tokyo Metropolitan Police that they haven't cracked this case yet. They're one of the biggest police departments in the world and have extensive resources. Yes, their in-house computer crime department is new, but they could draw on expertise at the national level or from outside Japan.

damian2000 12y ago
I read a book recently that went into some detail about tokyo police's methods regarding a series of murders in the 1990s/2000s. In that account at least they didn't seem very compentent in their investigative skills - they were largely focused on getting confessions from people. Probably not relevant to the MtGox case. http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7555367-tokyo-hostess http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7555367-tokyo-hostess

Sealy 12y ago

Thank you for these posts. We need to keep awareness of the issue as high as possible as it will become easier and easier for both the forces and liquidators to dilute the funds left for payout down to nothing over time.

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sellcvv2015 12y ago