Exactly. "It works, except when it doesn't". Considering he even says that it only holds 88% of the time, you would expect 1 or 2 games out of every teams 12-g

Exactly. "It works, except when it doesn't". Considering he even says that it only holds 88% of the time, you would expect 1 or 2 games out of every teams 12-game season to go the "wrong" way. That is more than enough to screw up any ranking you want to make based on the transitive property when you take into account that the top 25 teams all range between 0 and 3 losses.