As a counterargument: http://lesswrong.com/lw/sg/when_not_to_use_probabilities/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/sg/when_not_to_use_probabilities/ (Note that I think t

As a counterargument: http://lesswrong.com/lw/sg/when_not_to_use_probabilities/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/sg/when_not_to_use_probabilities/ (Note that I think that starting with a good 50/50 coinflip and revising it based on evidence in this case is reasonable, I just think it's nice to have a reasoned opposing opinion sometimes.)