This is a good analysis. However, it is a little odd that everyone mentions the Saudi failure to reduce supply as a factor in lower prices, but no one mentions

This is a good analysis. However, it is a little odd that everyone mentions the Saudi failure to reduce supply as a factor in lower prices, but no one mentions the increased supply from US shale oil. Although up slightly, conventionals are relatively flat. Most of the global supply increase has come from nonconventionals and US shale oil's role is significant. Interestingly, most US shale oil investments seem to properly protected against price drops via commodities contracts - at least through this year - so the near term pain will be in the financial industry.