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Seems that nobody is getting peak oil right. The rise of the North Dakota shale is the confirmation of that theory. Also Saudi Arabia is doomed. The kingdom wi

Seems that nobody is getting peak oil right. The rise of the North Dakota shale is the confirmation of that theory. Also Saudi Arabia is doomed. The kingdom will be collateral damage in the poaching war (its not hot, its not cold) ... to hit russia, the US is doing its best to bring Iran back online. US is self sufficient so they don't fear supply crunch, Europe is moving fast with renewable energy ... and we have nice battery progress lately which is main roadblock.

wcoenen 12y ago
> US is self sufficient so they don't fear supply crunch The USA is a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products. At a level of 5 million barrels per day. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=a http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mt...
- criley2 12y ago
  Majority of US imports come from Canada. American reliance on Middle Eastern oil is small. America is down to 27% imports: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=32&t=6 http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=32&t=6 America imports roughly three times as much from Canada as it does Saudi Arabia: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6 http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6 America currently has 690 million barrels in strategic reserve (It's silly to assume that Canadian imports would ever be cut off, but if the 3 million barrels elsewise got cut, we could potentially last for years on the reserve). That 690 million barrel reserve doesn't count the nation stock of oil. The United States is experiencing a massive oil glut with the oil inventories currently at an 80 year high (and sitting near maximum national capacity) at 482.4 million barrels of inventory. http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2015/apr/13/tanks-full-of-oil-u-s-refineries-to-pum/?f=latest http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2015/apr/13/tanks-full-of... So yeah, the US imports about 5,000,000 barrels a day (strong majority of that from Canada), but has over 1,000,000,000 barrels of oil stored inside our borders as inventory and reserve.
  - maxerickson 12y ago
    Am I doing the arithmetic right, that it is a 200 day reserve? That creates some flexibility, but it isn't that long a period of time.
    - pixl97 12y ago
      200 days at current usage. If the supply was cut off, of course, prices would go up and usage would go down. Prices going up would re-open a huge amount of U.S. production that is currently shut-in.
- at-fates-hands 12y ago
  You can also add in the lack of refineries and the number has decreased steadily since the 1980's: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=8_NA_8O0_NUS_C&f=A http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=8_... It's great we're producing a ton of oil, but if we don't have the capabilities to refine it, I'm not sure what good it does in the long run.
  - venomsnake 12y ago
    There has been horizontal expansion of refineries. I don't think US have substantially lower capacity than before.
briandear 12y ago
The U.S. is not self sufficient at current production. The U.S. produces almost 9 million barrels a day and uses almost 19 million. The U.S. could be self sufficient but the permit restrictions on shallow water drilling as well as other political issues make self sufficiency a ways off. As far as Europe and renewables, I think the perception is far more positive than the reality. Windmills and solar provide a very small part of Europe's energy. Russian natural gas is by far the most important energy source. France has had good luck with nuclear but the anti-nuke crowd is rather robust, limiting expansion.
- Svip 12y ago
  Indeed. Europe is still heavily reliant on coal and petroleum. Anti-nuclear crowd is incredibly robust and they are limiting expansion in numerous places. Windmills, solar and hydro are not capable of replacing fossil fuels without the help of nuclear, unless we want to cover all of Europe in windmills and solar panels. But we are moving in the right direction, but Europe is not doing as well as we like to pretend.
  - justincormack 12y ago
    Not reliant on petroleum for energy, only transport. Gas (in the European sense, not the American one) is a large amount. Renewable is 15% at present.
- maxerickson 12y ago
  US production for the 3rd quarter of 2014 was over 14 million barrels a day (the most recent quarter I saw numbers for, see my EIA link in another comment).
bkeroack 12y ago
The concept of peak oil is fine (almost self-evident), just the timing has been off. Theories are easier than predictions.
- acjohnson55 12y ago
  Although Peak Oil won't really happen if demand drops before we hit the supply peak. We might transition to renewables and eventually fusion and never actually experience the specific dynamic Peak Oil envisioned.
  - a8da6b0c91d 12y ago
    We're almost certainly talking about a period inside the next ten years. You think solar is good to go on a massive scale so soon? I don't. The shale and tar sands stuff is a bit of a joke. We're talking total proven reserves equivalent to something like six years of US consumption. I'm sure it has made some people rich and will make others rich, but it means approximately nothing in the grand scheme of things. Very few people understand the financial dynamics of Peak Oil. We're seeing them play out right now. As the cost of extraction goes ever upwards, there is tremendous deflationary pressure throughout the economy, because the issuance of new credit is intimately tied to the availability of cheap energy. A plunging oil price and bankrupt drillers is exactly what you would expect at Peak Oil. http://www.economic-undertow.com/2015/02/09/fatal-ignorance/ http://www.economic-undertow.com/2015/02/09/fatal-ignorance/
    - PopsiclePete 12y ago
      Know what peak oil and nuclear fusion have in common? They're always 10 years away! I've been hearing this "doom and gloom" since the mid-90's. We're always 10 years away from a complete collapse of our oil-based economy and a Mad Max style dystopian society. We were 10 years away in 1994, we were 10 years away in 2004, and then in 2014. I will bet you $10 right now that you'll declare in 2024 that Peak Oil is going to hit us in 2034. And now we have cheaper gas than we've had in a while, and we're producing more and more. Why would "I" (average Joe Blow) believe the doom-and-gloom crowd, ever? Even if "Peak oil" was literally next Wednesday, fewer and fewer people will listen.

wcoenen 12y ago

> US is self sufficient so they don't fear supply crunch The USA is a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products. At a level of 5 million barrels per day. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=a http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mt...

criley2 12y ago
Majority of US imports come from Canada. American reliance on Middle Eastern oil is small. America is down to 27% imports: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=32&t=6 http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=32&t=6 America imports roughly three times as much from Canada as it does Saudi Arabia: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6 http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6 America currently has 690 million barrels in strategic reserve (It's silly to assume that Canadian imports would ever be cut off, but if the 3 million barrels elsewise got cut, we could potentially last for years on the reserve). That 690 million barrel reserve doesn't count the nation stock of oil. The United States is experiencing a massive oil glut with the oil inventories currently at an 80 year high (and sitting near maximum national capacity) at 482.4 million barrels of inventory. http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2015/apr/13/tanks-full-of-oil-u-s-refineries-to-pum/?f=latest http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2015/apr/13/tanks-full-of... So yeah, the US imports about 5,000,000 barrels a day (strong majority of that from Canada), but has over 1,000,000,000 barrels of oil stored inside our borders as inventory and reserve.
- maxerickson 12y ago
  Am I doing the arithmetic right, that it is a 200 day reserve? That creates some flexibility, but it isn't that long a period of time.
  - pixl97 12y ago
    200 days at current usage. If the supply was cut off, of course, prices would go up and usage would go down. Prices going up would re-open a huge amount of U.S. production that is currently shut-in.
at-fates-hands 12y ago
You can also add in the lack of refineries and the number has decreased steadily since the 1980's: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=8_NA_8O0_NUS_C&f=A http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=8_... It's great we're producing a ton of oil, but if we don't have the capabilities to refine it, I'm not sure what good it does in the long run.
- venomsnake 12y ago
  There has been horizontal expansion of refineries. I don't think US have substantially lower capacity than before.

briandear 12y ago

The U.S. is not self sufficient at current production. The U.S. produces almost 9 million barrels a day and uses almost 19 million. The U.S. could be self sufficient but the permit restrictions on shallow water drilling as well as other political issues make self sufficiency a ways off. As far as Europe and renewables, I think the perception is far more positive than the reality. Windmills and solar provide a very small part of Europe's energy. Russian natural gas is by far the most important energy source. France has had good luck with nuclear but the anti-nuke crowd is rather robust, limiting expansion.

Svip 12y ago
Indeed. Europe is still heavily reliant on coal and petroleum. Anti-nuclear crowd is incredibly robust and they are limiting expansion in numerous places. Windmills, solar and hydro are not capable of replacing fossil fuels without the help of nuclear, unless we want to cover all of Europe in windmills and solar panels. But we are moving in the right direction, but Europe is not doing as well as we like to pretend.
- justincormack 12y ago
  Not reliant on petroleum for energy, only transport. Gas (in the European sense, not the American one) is a large amount. Renewable is 15% at present.
maxerickson 12y ago
US production for the 3rd quarter of 2014 was over 14 million barrels a day (the most recent quarter I saw numbers for, see my EIA link in another comment).

bkeroack 12y ago

The concept of peak oil is fine (almost self-evident), just the timing has been off. Theories are easier than predictions.

acjohnson55 12y ago
Although Peak Oil won't really happen if demand drops before we hit the supply peak. We might transition to renewables and eventually fusion and never actually experience the specific dynamic Peak Oil envisioned.
- a8da6b0c91d 12y ago
  We're almost certainly talking about a period inside the next ten years. You think solar is good to go on a massive scale so soon? I don't. The shale and tar sands stuff is a bit of a joke. We're talking total proven reserves equivalent to something like six years of US consumption. I'm sure it has made some people rich and will make others rich, but it means approximately nothing in the grand scheme of things. Very few people understand the financial dynamics of Peak Oil. We're seeing them play out right now. As the cost of extraction goes ever upwards, there is tremendous deflationary pressure throughout the economy, because the issuance of new credit is intimately tied to the availability of cheap energy. A plunging oil price and bankrupt drillers is exactly what you would expect at Peak Oil. http://www.economic-undertow.com/2015/02/09/fatal-ignorance/ http://www.economic-undertow.com/2015/02/09/fatal-ignorance/
  - PopsiclePete 12y ago
    Know what peak oil and nuclear fusion have in common? They're always 10 years away! I've been hearing this "doom and gloom" since the mid-90's. We're always 10 years away from a complete collapse of our oil-based economy and a Mad Max style dystopian society. We were 10 years away in 1994, we were 10 years away in 2004, and then in 2014. I will bet you $10 right now that you'll declare in 2024 that Peak Oil is going to hit us in 2034. And now we have cheaper gas than we've had in a while, and we're producing more and more. Why would "I" (average Joe Blow) believe the doom-and-gloom crowd, ever? Even if "Peak oil" was literally next Wednesday, fewer and fewer people will listen.