4 ms·

Have you got any insights to share on your suggested timeframes, e.g. changing linens "still 5 years"? How did you come up with those figures?

tim333 12y ago
You can guesstimate these things a bit by the Kurzweil type technique of projecting Moore's laws type improvements in computation and comparing them to animal neural systems as in one of his graphs: http://cdn.singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/exponential-growth-of-computing-1.jpg http://cdn.singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/exp...
- LunaSea 12y ago
  I would take anything that Kurzweil says with a mountain of salt.
ghshephard 12y ago
My timeframes are all minimum numbers - I.E. the dates by which I would give you 10 to 1 odds that they won't be beat. I don't have any insight into the maximum time frames - but anybody who spends a lot of time watching the growth curve in robotics would agree that we aren't advancing very quickly in optical/visual feedback dexterity See: http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/fingertip-sensor-gives-robot-dexterity-0919 http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/fingertip-sensor-gives-robot-... for what is considered to be state of the art. The dates regarding generalized cleaning, come from having done a n analysis of the higher-level thinking that takes place when cleaning a room - its very, very impressive the level of analysis that needs to take place for anything but the most straightforward cleanup job. What's interesting of course, is that anybody can make pretty good predictions as to what dates won't be beat, but it's hard to guess when they will be. Whats awesome to think about, is once we have technology to do things like clean up a room, the vast majority of other robotic tasks, are going to fall very quickly.
- alextgordon 12y ago
  The first step would be to build a remotely-operated robot and have maids from cheaper places "telecommute". Then I'm imagining the robots would slowly develop more semi-autonomy. The challenge is to have the right VR on the other end so that the robot can be controlled intuitively.

tim333 12y ago

You can guesstimate these things a bit by the Kurzweil type technique of projecting Moore's laws type improvements in computation and comparing them to animal neural systems as in one of his graphs: http://cdn.singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/exponential-growth-of-computing-1.jpg http://cdn.singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/exp...

LunaSea 12y ago
I would take anything that Kurzweil says with a mountain of salt.

ghshephard 12y ago

My timeframes are all minimum numbers - I.E. the dates by which I would give you 10 to 1 odds that they won't be beat. I don't have any insight into the maximum time frames - but anybody who spends a lot of time watching the growth curve in robotics would agree that we aren't advancing very quickly in optical/visual feedback dexterity See: http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/fingertip-sensor-gives-robot-dexterity-0919 http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/fingertip-sensor-gives-robot-... for what is considered to be state of the art. The dates regarding generalized cleaning, come from having done a n analysis of the higher-level thinking that takes place when cleaning a room - its very, very impressive the level of analysis that needs to take place for anything but the most straightforward cleanup job. What's interesting of course, is that anybody can make pretty good predictions as to what dates won't be beat, but it's hard to guess when they will be. Whats awesome to think about, is once we have technology to do things like clean up a room, the vast majority of other robotic tasks, are going to fall very quickly.

alextgordon 12y ago
The first step would be to build a remotely-operated robot and have maids from cheaper places "telecommute". Then I'm imagining the robots would slowly develop more semi-autonomy. The challenge is to have the right VR on the other end so that the robot can be controlled intuitively.