4 ms·

no... Barack Obama was viewed as a major contender for the Democratic Party nomination from the beginning of the primaries. He and Hillary were the only two ca

no... Barack Obama was viewed as a major contender for the Democratic Party nomination from the beginning of the primaries. He and Hillary were the only two candidates that had raised over $20MM in the first 3 months of 2007. So, 19 months before the election, the two serious democratic candidates had already taken the lead. In January 2008, Obama won 3 of the 4 first primaries, and tied with Hillary in the 4th. Rand Paul is viewed as following in his father's footsteps, who was never taken seriously by the national party. In his best performance in 2012, Ron Paul only won the primary in the US Virgin Islands.

AnthonyMouse 12y ago
I distinctly recall a whole slew of pundits ready to hold a coronation for Hillary Clinton in 2007 prior to a single primary vote being cast. The Republican field is completely different, of course, but that's why Rand Paul could win. The "front runner" has less than 17% of the vote and there are less than ten percentage points between #1 and #7. Those are exactly the conditions under which a candidate who can differentiate himself can succeed by capturing the entirety of his own base while the base of the other camp is split between several different candidates.
tarikjn 12y ago
> In his best performance in 2012, Ron Paul only won the primary in the US Virgin Islands. In the popular vote, true, but in number of delegates, once the counts were tallied, Ron Paul won Iowa, Maine, Minnesota and Louisiana. Ron Paul also had a solid financial campaign in 2012, not the largest fund, but likely the best managed. his performance was in large part diminished by media bashing on the eve of any primary elections in which polls were in his favor. For example, see CNN's Gloria Borger interview cut, which was quite outrageous.

4 ms·

no... Barack Obama was viewed as a major contender for the Democratic Party nomination from the beginning of the primaries. He and Hillary were the only two ca

by cowsandmilk 12y ago

AnthonyMouse 12y ago
I distinctly recall a whole slew of pundits ready to hold a coronation for Hillary Clinton in 2007 prior to a single primary vote being cast. The Republican field is completely different, of course, but that's why Rand Paul could win. The "front runner" has less than 17% of the vote and there are less than ten percentage points between #1 and #7. Those are exactly the conditions under which a candidate who can differentiate himself can succeed by capturing the entirety of his own base while the base of the other camp is split between several different candidates.
tarikjn 12y ago
> In his best performance in 2012, Ron Paul only won the primary in the US Virgin Islands. In the popular vote, true, but in number of delegates, once the counts were tallied, Ron Paul won Iowa, Maine, Minnesota and Louisiana. Ron Paul also had a solid financial campaign in 2012, not the largest fund, but likely the best managed. his performance was in large part diminished by media bashing on the eve of any primary elections in which polls were in his favor. For example, see CNN's Gloria Borger interview cut, which was quite outrageous.