4 ms·
Such an operation would take decades, and centuries probably to exhaust and return to Earth the entire asteroid. In the process and in response the size of the
by maaku 12y ago
Such an operation would take decades, and centuries probably to exhaust and return to Earth the entire asteroid. In the process and in response the size of the Earth economy will grow due to the introduction of a vast new supply of industrial materials.
Introduction of extraterrestrial resources will cause these commodity prices to fall. But falling prices will cause industrial use (and world GDP) to rise. How much will prices fall, and how much will demand rise, and therefore how much maximum revenue can be extracted? This is not an easy calculation.
- cgriswald 12y agoLooks like a simple differential equation to me. And we already have the models. The only real variable would be the rate at which materials are retrieved. And even that wouldn't be very variable, because SpaceX or whoever would use the rate that optimized their profits.
- d357r0y3r 12y agoWe have some models, but certainly none that are accurate for this kind of economic activity over the period of time we're talking about.
- sirclueless 12y agoThere's no good model out there I know of for the rate of innovation. Massive availability of a resource should spur innovation around its use. It's very difficult to predict the future demand for a resource beyond a timescale of decades. A good historical parallel for this kind of situation might be aluminum, which was a precious metal for many years. When it suddenly became available in large quantities due to new chemical processes for extracting it, supply skyrocketed and led to whole new industries. I don't think anyone in 1890 could have guessed what the ultimate demand for aluminum would settle at, even though it was clear the price was dropping precipitously.
- Rumford 12y agoExactly. If economic growth was just like microbe growth in a petri dish, sure, a simple equation would suffice. But people choose and act based on their own thoughts, opinions, and goals, and they are always readjusting to new input and information. Economics can tell us reliably that if you add supply, you press the price downward. What economics can't tell you is what crazy and amazing things the humans will do in response to that.