37 ms·

Serious question: what's special about now, as opposed to 10 years ago or 10 years from now?

by gfodor 12y ago

rewqfdsa 12y ago
I can't think of anything special about this instant, but look at prevailing conditions: the employment-to-population rate has plummeted in recent years [1]. The number of zero-margin-product people on disability has skyrocketed [2]. Income inequality has increased markedly [3]. Yet our GDP has increased tremendously during that time [4]. We just don't need as many person-hours as we used to need. The trend is only going to continue. Except in the case of people with exceptional cognitive endowments (like most of the HN readership), there's a labor glut. We could just wait. The trend will continue. Eventually, things will come to a head (or several, under a guillotine). Instead, let's gracefully adapt to increased productivity by increasing the cost of labor. That's how we can let the population as a whole benefit from this productivity miracle. [1] http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 [2] http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-disability-rolls-swell-in-a-rough-economy/2013/09/20/a791915c-1575-11e3-804b-d3a1a3a18f2c_story.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-disability... [3] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=gini+coefficient+united+statesm+2005+to+2015 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=gini+coefficient+unite... [4] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=United+States+real+GDP&lk=1 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=United+States+real+GDP...
- prostoalex 12y ago
  Your [1] begins in 2005. Expand that to maximum range, and it will turn out that we're at about average. I think one of the expected outcomes of ACA was that people who could afford to retire, but were too constrained to buy their own health insurance, would leave the workforce.
  - rewqfdsa 12y ago
    The previous period with a comparable employment-population ratio was before women entered the workforce in large numbers.

Serious question: what's special about now, as opposed to 10 years ago or 10 years from now?

by gfodor 12y ago

Serious question: what's special about now, as opposed to 10 years ago or 10 years from now?

I can't think of anything special about this instant, but look at prevailing conditions: the employment-to-population rate has plummeted in recent years [1]. The number of zero-margin-product people on disability has skyrocketed [2]. Income inequality has increased markedly [3]. Yet our GDP has increased tremendously during that time [4]. We just don't need as many person-hours as we used to need. The trend is only going to continue. Except in the case of people with exceptional cognitive endowments (like most of the HN readership), there's a labor glut. We could just wait. The trend will continue. Eventually, things will come to a head (or several, under a guillotine). Instead, let's gracefully adapt to increased productivity by increasing the cost of labor. That's how we can let the population as a whole benefit from this productivity miracle. [1] http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 [2] http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-disability-rolls-swell-in-a-rough-economy/2013/09/20/a791915c-1575-11e3-804b-d3a1a3a18f2c_story.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-disability... [3] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=gini+coefficient+united+statesm+2005+to+2015 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=gini+coefficient+unite... [4] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=United+States+real+GDP&lk=1 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=United+States+real+GDP...

prostoalex 12y ago
Your [1] begins in 2005. Expand that to maximum range, and it will turn out that we're at about average. I think one of the expected outcomes of ACA was that people who could afford to retire, but were too constrained to buy their own health insurance, would leave the workforce.
- rewqfdsa 12y ago
  The previous period with a comparable employment-population ratio was before women entered the workforce in large numbers.