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> For instance, gamblers are also quite good at assessing probabilities, and when country fairs hold competitions to see who can guess the weight of a cow, the
by baddox 12y ago
> For instance, gamblers are also quite good at assessing probabilities, and when country fairs hold competitions to see who can guess the weight of a cow, the guesses tend to cluster around the correct answer.
Does each guess submission cost money? If so, then that's a pretty standard market. People who know more about cow weights are more likely to spend money because they have more to gain. Of course, even with free tickets, it could just be that people at rural fairs know a reasonable amount about cow weights.
- warfangle 12y agoI've seen the example as "guess the number of jellybeans in the jar," as well.
- ghaff 12y agoUnder the right circumstances, prediction markets can work surprisingly well even when no money is involved and even when not all the participants are expert. Of course, there needs to be some expertise/information in the group. Random picks aren't going to converge on the right answer.