There are a lot of meanings for "success." I think that Apple Watch will sell comfortably well at launch. Apple has earned brand loyalty from its customers an

There are a lot of meanings for "success." I think that Apple Watch will sell comfortably well at launch. Apple has earned brand loyalty from its customers and is adept at gauging or generating demand and selling to it. And, having the watch, my sense is that the overwhelming majority of Watch-owners will, you know, where and use it. Nothing I'm getting from any of these reviews is "oh my god, this is a disaster," and the people I know who have Pebbles or Android Wear watches like them pretty well and continue to wear them. This suggests that once you've shelled out for a smartwatch, the watch has to be pretty bad for you to just not use it. Now: will people who bought the watch like it enough to want to upgrade it regularly? Will they evangelize it to their friends? Will they drive demand for apps that creates a robust app ecosystem and potentially clever new products that are uniquely suited to the watch form-factor? I don't think they will. Which has little to do with Apple per se and more to do with the inherent limitations of the form factor. But, if I'm right (and, hey, I'm predicting the future, I'm probably wrong), that's not good news for Apple, which more than Google really needs the watch to be successful.