If I'm reading your comment correctly, then I think I'm disagreeing with you on two points: 1) I find that the outliers make a big difference in any distributi

If I'm reading your comment correctly, then I think I'm disagreeing with you on two points: 1) I find that the outliers make a big difference in any distribution. For example: the vast majority of start ups fail, but the ones that succeed can make a large impact. To your example, the vast majority of compounds tried as drugs fail but the rare ones like peniclilin change medicine as we know it. 2) Personally I've found that people's current status in life can be a predictor of future success but it far from perfect. I would suggest that rather than trying to predict who is going to succeed beforehand we come up with a system that gives them some opportunities to be successful.