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Is there any way for the common man to do this? It seems like a pretty sure bet that oil will be more expensive in five years.

by bioweek 17y ago

danteembermage 17y ago
There's a whole boatload of oil based Exchange Traded Funds: http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/oil-price-etfs.html http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/oil-price-etfs.ht... I've never done this, but I think they should be available to purchase through an online broker like Scottrade, etrade, etc.
mhartl 17y ago
There are ETFs (exchange-traded funds) called OIL and USO which track the price of oil and oil futures. You can buy them through, e.g., Scottrade, the same way you buy stocks. Or you could just buy stock directly in oil companies, which would certainly expose you to the future price of oil. It may seem like a sure bet that oil prices will rise, but the return would have to compensate you for (a) the opportunity cost and (b) the risk that you're wrong. Peak oil alarmists imply that the current prices don't accurately reflect future scarcity, so they should be able to make a killing in the oil markets and encourage conservation (by making current oil more expensive) at the same time. But if they don't have the confidence to put their money where their mouth is, they really should have the good sense to shut up already. N.B. I do know some peak oil types who are long oil, and I respect them greatly for it.
- tome 17y ago
  I think part of the problem is that at the more extreme end they think that the world economy is going to collapse, so that if they're right, there will be no way those contracts will be honoured.
Kadin 17y ago
Keep in mind, though, that when you buy a future, the price of that future already has expectations factored into it. It's very easy for individual traders to get slaughtered in the futures markets; you're essentially betting against other market participants, some of whom may have vastly better access to information than you do. I would be very wary in assuming that the market is underpricing something based on information in the Guardian; it's fair to assume other market participants read it as well, and the information has been built into the prices already by market makers.
- pradocchia 17y ago
  It's very easy for individual traders to get slaughtered in the futures markets I've done far better short than long. Fundamentally, I should be long, but there's a lot more going on there besides simple market forces.

Is there any way for the common man to do this? It seems like a pretty sure bet that oil will be more expensive in five years.

by bioweek 17y ago

Is there any way for the common man to do this? It seems like a pretty sure bet that oil will be more expensive in five years.

danteembermage 17y ago

There's a whole boatload of oil based Exchange Traded Funds: http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/oil-price-etfs.html http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/oil-price-etfs.ht... I've never done this, but I think they should be available to purchase through an online broker like Scottrade, etrade, etc.

mhartl 17y ago

There are ETFs (exchange-traded funds) called OIL and USO which track the price of oil and oil futures. You can buy them through, e.g., Scottrade, the same way you buy stocks. Or you could just buy stock directly in oil companies, which would certainly expose you to the future price of oil. It may seem like a sure bet that oil prices will rise, but the return would have to compensate you for (a) the opportunity cost and (b) the risk that you're wrong. Peak oil alarmists imply that the current prices don't accurately reflect future scarcity, so they should be able to make a killing in the oil markets and encourage conservation (by making current oil more expensive) at the same time. But if they don't have the confidence to put their money where their mouth is, they really should have the good sense to shut up already. N.B. I do know some peak oil types who are long oil, and I respect them greatly for it.

tome 17y ago
I think part of the problem is that at the more extreme end they think that the world economy is going to collapse, so that if they're right, there will be no way those contracts will be honoured.

Kadin 17y ago

Keep in mind, though, that when you buy a future, the price of that future already has expectations factored into it. It's very easy for individual traders to get slaughtered in the futures markets; you're essentially betting against other market participants, some of whom may have vastly better access to information than you do. I would be very wary in assuming that the market is underpricing something based on information in the Guardian; it's fair to assume other market participants read it as well, and the information has been built into the prices already by market makers.

pradocchia 17y ago
It's very easy for individual traders to get slaughtered in the futures markets I've done far better short than long. Fundamentally, I should be long, but there's a lot more going on there besides simple market forces.