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Battery innovation is actually bottle-necked by the fact that over 90% of all anode materials are produced in China. So global adoption is ultimately dictated i
by algirau 12y ago
Battery innovation is actually bottle-necked by the fact that over 90% of all anode materials are produced in China. So global adoption is ultimately dictated if manufacturing in China follows suit.
Unlike Americans, where we innovate with a short time horizon, China innovates and invest for generations (25-100 years). Thus, once a technology has been chose to be invested in overseas, the Chinese go "all-in".
The current paradigm shift is that Chinese anode material manufacturers are switching from graphite based electrodes to silicon nanoparticle based electrodes due to the fact that silicon nanoparticles have a theoretical energy density of ~4,000mAh/g, a 10x increase when compared to graphite which is only ~350mAh/g. There has been substantial research on silicon based lithium-ion batteries in the US for the past 7 years; it is now hitting a true inflection point.
This is one of the few "break-though" battery chemistries that is now entering full scale production - Panasonic is producing an 18650 cell made of silicon used by Tesla.
*(see also Amprius, Envia,XG Sciences, etc.)
Tl;dr battery adoption is limited by adoption by Chinese manufacturers which control over 90% of the global anode material manufacturing. Silicon nanoparticles are taking over.
- IkmoIkmo 12y agoSweet, thanks! So what would that (e.g. 10x the energy density) mean for consumers in practice. Can we expect 4x the range on a car, or the lifetime on a phone? Is this something we'll see around 2020, later, earlier?
- algirau 12y agoUnfortunately, there are several items that interfere with maximizing the 10X. Then anode is only ~16% of the entire battery, so increasing the anode energy density by 10X does not translate directly to 10X battery life. You must also consider the cathode, and separator which can hinder this. Remember the 10X is a "theoretical maximum". It is important to constantly increase the theoretical maximum energy density. Translating the theoretical to an actual energy density is about downstream processing - see how Tesla increases battery efficiency each year by make the processing more efficient. Amprius was promising 10X increase, but once they reach ton-scale manufacturing they were only able to get a 30-50% increase. I am sure they will be able to gradually increase close to the 10X maximum by making processing more efficient. tl;dr battery material processing into the actual battery is where most of the batteries lose there performance. Step (1) Increase theoretical energy density by finding new material; Step (2) focus on battery processing to approach theoretical maximum.
- algirau 12y agoI believe we will see it much earlier than 2020. The DOE has mandated that they want to see lithium-ion batteries 5X in capacity and 5X cheaper by 2020. I think it can be done. If would happen much faster if we manufactured here and did not have to worry about international logistical and quality assurance associate with Chinese manufacturing.