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My prediction with nothing but anecdotes! We have drastically overstated the importance of college the last 20 years, sending far too many people deeper into t

My prediction with nothing but anecdotes! We have drastically overstated the importance of college the last 20 years, sending far too many people deeper into the education system as opposed to encouraging more trade craft. We are going to end up with a shortage of qualified tradespeople in traditionally blue collar industries such as plumbing, welding, and electrical work here in the near future, especially because "people with college degrees don't do those jobs" (which is a tragic way to view such qualified craft. There are massive numbers of older folks in various trades who are getting set to retire, and there is a clear shortage of people ready to replace them. In other words, it's going to be very, very expensive to hire an electrician here in the near future. We just had our house rewired (old 1940s knob and tube), was chatting with our electrician a bit after the job, and he was talking about how absolutely insane it's been for him the past 3-4 years. He's a younger guy and he said there is already a huge shortage of folks trained and certified to handle a lot of the work needed in the city, causing prices to increase sharply. The boom economy (Seattle) certainly has a lot to do with it, but even in general, he commented about how he just doesn't know that many electricians his age.

melling 12y ago
What's your prediction for demand in 2055, when someone starting college, welding, etc is about a decade from retirement? Gotta skate to where the puck is going to be.
- Sanddancer 12y ago
  Most cities' 30-40 year plans at this point are envisioning lots of steel framed buildings being constructed. So, in 40 years, someone just starting out now is quite possibly going to be the chief to a crew of younger people building all those shiny new buildings. That's not to negate education; in welding, knowing how different materials fuse, new techniques, etc, is vital. Even Blue Collar trades have a continuing education requirement if you want to stay relevant.
  - brazzy 12y ago
    Or it could all end up being done by robots. Better hope your practical experience is accompanied by enough high tech knowledge to qualify you for supervising or constructing those...
mc32 12y ago
I think I'd state it another way. We've overstated education as a path to a good job, but not the importance of education. Education is important in and of itself, specialization can indeed enhance one's job prospects, but general secondary education isn't or should not only be interpreted as a means to a job but rather a means to personal growth. Im not saying we should all turn to soft majors, the contrary, there is too much of that, but we do need the GE classes even for line cooks and anyone else doing menial work. It should give us all a better understanding of that which affects our daily lives.
- zachalexander 12y ago
  Higher education is absolutely a means to personal growth, but at ~$100K in the US it's a really extravagant form of personal growth.
- karmacondon 12y ago
  "Education" != "University". You never said that it did, but I just wanted to be clear on that. A line cook can read wikipedia and books from the library, or take community college or learning annex classes if he or she wants to further their education. Kahn academy, meetup groups, MOOCs, book clubs and autodidactic self study are a few of many ways to learn more about the world and grow as a person. The question is, why don't more people avail themselves of these (mostly) free resources? I think that the answer is that the majority of people don't care, and don't feel as enriched by knowledge for the sake of knowledge as the average hn member, or even the average college student. After a hard day of menial work most people want to relax and watch tv or have a beer with friends. The majority of people care about "education" in as much as it can help them to get easier and higher paying jobs, as far from laboring as a line cook as possible. Let's not pretend that the average McDonald's worker is thirsting for knowledge about the humanities or would materially benefit from it in any way. The idea that everyone should be pursuing secondary education seems like a bit of projection. If general education classes were beneficial to you, then that's great. But most people are more concerned with their families and relationships, paying their bills and enjoying life in their own way than they are with learning and personal growth. If a trade school is the best way for them to do those things, then so be it. Telling people to study things they aren't interested in because "it's good for them" probably isn't going to help much.
sebastianavina 12y ago
that's why mexicans keep going to usa, it's fair common to meet welders over here.
solveproblems 12y ago
It's already here :-). I work in construction tech. The workers making the most money on jobsites are not college-educated civil engineers. They are experienced superintendents, who grew up in the trades, have no college debt, and own multiple homes in CA. Learn a trade--electrician, mechanical, etc. or software or sales, etc.
pmorici 12y ago
In the case of Electricians and Plumbers the time requirements for becoming licensed are steep. In Maryland for example to become a "Master" electrician you need to work in the field for 7 years as an apprentice. That's kind of nuts when you consider that's about the same amount of time it takes to train a doctor.
- walshemj 12y ago
  depends what a master electrician means if it is like the UK EngTech 7 years seems about right You have the do the Trade apprenticeship (4 years) plus the advanced apprenticeship to get your EngTech - assuming your going in straight with no qualifications
- jimkri 12y ago
  Well I think it makes sense, there is tons of different situations that an electrician can face and if they don't have the experience, they could rig the wiring bad. I worked with my dad before, he has over 30+ years experience, he has showed and told me of jobs that were done by guys with only a couple years experience where they messed up the job bad.
- VLM 12y ago
  I was a little confused based on your report of MD compared to my home state. I googled and it turns out MD is pretty normal after all. When you apprentice you sign a contract stating what you'll be paid as you learn and attend classes. In my state the union rate is a bit over $30/hr and the legal contract for apprentices over the course of their 4 years (same as in MD) must average at least 60% of union rate. Usually it progresses somewhat steeply over those four years. Doctors tend not to be cash flow positive for a little while... electricians are cash flow positive after a month or so (need to pay for tools, etc) You can't work as an electrician for those 4 years without being directly (like in sight) supervised by a master electrician. Its like being a student, although you're getting paid rather than paying for it. I think the closest doctor analogy to electrician apprenticeship would be "internship year" After your 4 year contract is up you get a journeymans card, and can work by yourself without a master directly supervising you. Not 7 years, not even in MD. Very controversially some states allow journeymen to act as mini-masters supervising a small number of unlicensed workers (like 1, although I've heard as many as 3 depending on state) with the assumption they'll be grunt labor. Your boss will remain a master electrician. I think a pretty good doctor analogy would be "resident years" After a couple years you can test for master, and if you make it, you'll be able to supervise and train your own small herd of apprentices and generally get paid a bit more than a journeyman. Also bonding and insurance and licenses and permits are only possible if you're a master. If you're smart enough to become a master there is really no downside to becoming one. I think the closest medical analogy to a master electrician is "hospital administrator" or maybe "department head" or "private practice" An apprentice sits in a truck owned by a master with the master physically in the drivers seat next to him, a journeyman sits in a truck owned by the master with a fairly traditional somewhat distant supervisory relationship with his boss who is a master, and a master owns trucks and probably has some combination of journeymen working for him and noob apprentices learning from him. There are plenty of master electricians who don't have employees, but you need to be a master to have employees. One of my army buddies got out, got a philosophy degree, eventually became a master electrician and we occasionally talk (also out of politeness he doesn't ask me to fix computers and I don't ask him to wire things). I always kinda wondered which of us made the right choices. Obviously he's richer than I am and has a more stable working environment and will have a far wealthier retirement than I will, but I am safer and healthier at my desk (or ... am I?)

melling 12y ago

What's your prediction for demand in 2055, when someone starting college, welding, etc is about a decade from retirement? Gotta skate to where the puck is going to be.

Sanddancer 12y ago
Most cities' 30-40 year plans at this point are envisioning lots of steel framed buildings being constructed. So, in 40 years, someone just starting out now is quite possibly going to be the chief to a crew of younger people building all those shiny new buildings. That's not to negate education; in welding, knowing how different materials fuse, new techniques, etc, is vital. Even Blue Collar trades have a continuing education requirement if you want to stay relevant.
- brazzy 12y ago
  Or it could all end up being done by robots. Better hope your practical experience is accompanied by enough high tech knowledge to qualify you for supervising or constructing those...

mc32 12y ago

I think I'd state it another way. We've overstated education as a path to a good job, but not the importance of education. Education is important in and of itself, specialization can indeed enhance one's job prospects, but general secondary education isn't or should not only be interpreted as a means to a job but rather a means to personal growth. Im not saying we should all turn to soft majors, the contrary, there is too much of that, but we do need the GE classes even for line cooks and anyone else doing menial work. It should give us all a better understanding of that which affects our daily lives.

zachalexander 12y ago
Higher education is absolutely a means to personal growth, but at ~$100K in the US it's a really extravagant form of personal growth.
karmacondon 12y ago
"Education" != "University". You never said that it did, but I just wanted to be clear on that. A line cook can read wikipedia and books from the library, or take community college or learning annex classes if he or she wants to further their education. Kahn academy, meetup groups, MOOCs, book clubs and autodidactic self study are a few of many ways to learn more about the world and grow as a person. The question is, why don't more people avail themselves of these (mostly) free resources? I think that the answer is that the majority of people don't care, and don't feel as enriched by knowledge for the sake of knowledge as the average hn member, or even the average college student. After a hard day of menial work most people want to relax and watch tv or have a beer with friends. The majority of people care about "education" in as much as it can help them to get easier and higher paying jobs, as far from laboring as a line cook as possible. Let's not pretend that the average McDonald's worker is thirsting for knowledge about the humanities or would materially benefit from it in any way. The idea that everyone should be pursuing secondary education seems like a bit of projection. If general education classes were beneficial to you, then that's great. But most people are more concerned with their families and relationships, paying their bills and enjoying life in their own way than they are with learning and personal growth. If a trade school is the best way for them to do those things, then so be it. Telling people to study things they aren't interested in because "it's good for them" probably isn't going to help much.

sebastianavina 12y ago

that's why mexicans keep going to usa, it's fair common to meet welders over here.

solveproblems 12y ago

It's already here :-). I work in construction tech. The workers making the most money on jobsites are not college-educated civil engineers. They are experienced superintendents, who grew up in the trades, have no college debt, and own multiple homes in CA. Learn a trade--electrician, mechanical, etc. or software or sales, etc.

pmorici 12y ago

In the case of Electricians and Plumbers the time requirements for becoming licensed are steep. In Maryland for example to become a "Master" electrician you need to work in the field for 7 years as an apprentice. That's kind of nuts when you consider that's about the same amount of time it takes to train a doctor.

walshemj 12y ago
depends what a master electrician means if it is like the UK EngTech 7 years seems about right You have the do the Trade apprenticeship (4 years) plus the advanced apprenticeship to get your EngTech - assuming your going in straight with no qualifications
jimkri 12y ago
Well I think it makes sense, there is tons of different situations that an electrician can face and if they don't have the experience, they could rig the wiring bad. I worked with my dad before, he has over 30+ years experience, he has showed and told me of jobs that were done by guys with only a couple years experience where they messed up the job bad.
VLM 12y ago
I was a little confused based on your report of MD compared to my home state. I googled and it turns out MD is pretty normal after all. When you apprentice you sign a contract stating what you'll be paid as you learn and attend classes. In my state the union rate is a bit over $30/hr and the legal contract for apprentices over the course of their 4 years (same as in MD) must average at least 60% of union rate. Usually it progresses somewhat steeply over those four years. Doctors tend not to be cash flow positive for a little while... electricians are cash flow positive after a month or so (need to pay for tools, etc) You can't work as an electrician for those 4 years without being directly (like in sight) supervised by a master electrician. Its like being a student, although you're getting paid rather than paying for it. I think the closest doctor analogy to electrician apprenticeship would be "internship year" After your 4 year contract is up you get a journeymans card, and can work by yourself without a master directly supervising you. Not 7 years, not even in MD. Very controversially some states allow journeymen to act as mini-masters supervising a small number of unlicensed workers (like 1, although I've heard as many as 3 depending on state) with the assumption they'll be grunt labor. Your boss will remain a master electrician. I think a pretty good doctor analogy would be "resident years" After a couple years you can test for master, and if you make it, you'll be able to supervise and train your own small herd of apprentices and generally get paid a bit more than a journeyman. Also bonding and insurance and licenses and permits are only possible if you're a master. If you're smart enough to become a master there is really no downside to becoming one. I think the closest medical analogy to a master electrician is "hospital administrator" or maybe "department head" or "private practice" An apprentice sits in a truck owned by a master with the master physically in the drivers seat next to him, a journeyman sits in a truck owned by the master with a fairly traditional somewhat distant supervisory relationship with his boss who is a master, and a master owns trucks and probably has some combination of journeymen working for him and noob apprentices learning from him. There are plenty of master electricians who don't have employees, but you need to be a master to have employees. One of my army buddies got out, got a philosophy degree, eventually became a master electrician and we occasionally talk (also out of politeness he doesn't ask me to fix computers and I don't ask him to wire things). I always kinda wondered which of us made the right choices. Obviously he's richer than I am and has a more stable working environment and will have a far wealthier retirement than I will, but I am safer and healthier at my desk (or ... am I?)