5 ms·

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit

41 points by abalashov 17y ago

TNO 17y ago
Strange, that's not what I heard: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090128183930.htm http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090128183930.ht... http://seekingalpha.com/article/31884-can-royal-dutch-shell-s-shale-extraction-technique-end-peak-oil-paranoia http://seekingalpha.com/article/31884-can-royal-dutch-shell-...
- fnid 17y ago
  I don't believe anything in these articles says that peak oil isn't a reality, they only push back the peak. The only thing that could refute peak oil is confirmation of abiotic oil production. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin Off topic: [E]ngineers at Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) have applied for a patent on a new method of extracting shale oil cheaply and cleanly. How is this different from granting a patent on software that extracts data cheaply and cleanly?
  - camccann 17y ago
    In practice "peak oil" is more a political catchphrase than anything else. Objectively, the concept is both true and obvious. Yes, finite resources are finite and if you keep using them they'll eventually run out. Not exactly rocket science, there. In practice, it mostly gets discussed because people like to worry over impending catastrophes, especially ones that can be blamed on people they don't like. It's really just not that big of a concern. Oh, and abiogenic petroleum is pretty much crackpottery, so that doesn't help.
    - pyre 17y ago
      > Oh, and abiogenic petroleum is pretty much crackpottery, so that doesn't help. What does this have to do with his post? He was basically saying that finite resources will have an end unless we can confirm that they aren't finite.
    - RyanMcGreal 17y ago
      > if you keep using them they'll eventually run out Peak oil isn't about oil running out. It's about the rate of production going into decline and the economy struggling to handle extreme oil price volatility.
  - roc 17y ago
    Patents are only granted on specific implementations, not ideas. So, if granted, it wouldn't be a patent on any better extraction method, but only on their particular method of increasing efficiency. (say, the use of a particular additive in the slurry or what-have-you)
mhartl 17y ago
These people need to stop talking and start buying oil futures.
- billswift 17y ago
  They aren't TOTAL idiots; they learned their lesson from Ehrlich's bet with Julian Simon.
  - mahmud 17y ago
    http://www.TOTAL.com/ http://www.TOTAL.com/
- bioweek 17y ago
  Is there any way for the common man to do this? It seems like a pretty sure bet that oil will be more expensive in five years.
  - danteembermage 17y ago
    There's a whole boatload of oil based Exchange Traded Funds: http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/oil-price-etfs.html http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/oil-price-etfs.ht... I've never done this, but I think they should be available to purchase through an online broker like Scottrade, etrade, etc.
  - mhartl 17y ago
    There are ETFs (exchange-traded funds) called OIL and USO which track the price of oil and oil futures. You can buy them through, e.g., Scottrade, the same way you buy stocks. Or you could just buy stock directly in oil companies, which would certainly expose you to the future price of oil. It may seem like a sure bet that oil prices will rise, but the return would have to compensate you for (a) the opportunity cost and (b) the risk that you're wrong. Peak oil alarmists imply that the current prices don't accurately reflect future scarcity, so they should be able to make a killing in the oil markets and encourage conservation (by making current oil more expensive) at the same time. But if they don't have the confidence to put their money where their mouth is, they really should have the good sense to shut up already. N.B. I do know some peak oil types who are long oil, and I respect them greatly for it.
ryandvm 17y ago
Nice graph. Everything going swimmingly - until tomorrow, when the sky falls.
- camccann 17y ago
  If you're talking about the dark blue part of the graph, that represents currently active oil fields only, so of course it's going to drop starting the day after the graph was made because it's defined to exclude new production capacity! The light blue apparently represents the expected production from known but untapped fields, so the dark and light blue combined represent current known oil reserves, and don't show any spurious drops.
tome 17y ago
Interesting timing with Copenhagen looming. I'm usually the first person to talk about the potential risks of the oil crisis, but I think think this article is geared more towards the climate change talks than a serious analysis of the oil issues.
ivankirigin 17y ago
There is no such thing as running out of oil. There is only oil becoming more expensive to extract than alternatives.
- camccann 17y ago
  Trivially true, but not necessarily helpful. No one is suggesting that dwindling oil supply means we'll be going back to pre-industrial technology levels (well, no one sane, at least). The concern is potential economic shocks due to large increases in the relative price of oil and, by extension, oil-derived goods including anything that requires long-distance shipping. It's a legitimate concern, but probably overblown. With a sufficient range of alternatives, the inevitable price increases are likely to be gradual and steady, giving plenty of time to adjust. Anybody heavily dependent on cheap transportation is probably still screwed in the mid-to-long term, but at least they'll have time to fail gracefully rather than crash and burn overnight.
  - bokonist 17y ago
    There is no guarantee that the price increases will be gradual. If exporters of oil all have low time preference (which they do), then plummet could come very suddenly as wells start to go dry with no replacements (eg, an 80% drop off over a ten year period). There is also no guaranteed that we'll be able to find a suitable replacement. Only nuclear has anything close to the EREOI of oil, and nuclear plants takes a lot of time to build.
    - abalashov 17y ago
      nuclear plants takes a lot of time to build. And a lot of oil to build. And you can't put nuclear reactors in cars or planes. And you can't make plastics and most industrial inputs out of nuclear energy.
- prodigal_erik 17y ago
  There is also oil which requires more energy to extract than it contains (beyond which you'd only do it because you need some energy stored in liquid form).
tptacek 17y ago
... according to The Guardian's anonymous source. Flagged.

41 points by abalashov 17y ago

TNO 17y ago

Strange, that's not what I heard: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090128183930.htm http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090128183930.ht... http://seekingalpha.com/article/31884-can-royal-dutch-shell-s-shale-extraction-technique-end-peak-oil-paranoia http://seekingalpha.com/article/31884-can-royal-dutch-shell-...

fnid 17y ago
I don't believe anything in these articles says that peak oil isn't a reality, they only push back the peak. The only thing that could refute peak oil is confirmation of abiotic oil production. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin Off topic: [E]ngineers at Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) have applied for a patent on a new method of extracting shale oil cheaply and cleanly. How is this different from granting a patent on software that extracts data cheaply and cleanly?
- camccann 17y ago
  In practice "peak oil" is more a political catchphrase than anything else. Objectively, the concept is both true and obvious. Yes, finite resources are finite and if you keep using them they'll eventually run out. Not exactly rocket science, there. In practice, it mostly gets discussed because people like to worry over impending catastrophes, especially ones that can be blamed on people they don't like. It's really just not that big of a concern. Oh, and abiogenic petroleum is pretty much crackpottery, so that doesn't help.
  - pyre 17y ago
    > Oh, and abiogenic petroleum is pretty much crackpottery, so that doesn't help. What does this have to do with his post? He was basically saying that finite resources will have an end unless we can confirm that they aren't finite.
  - RyanMcGreal 17y ago
    > if you keep using them they'll eventually run out Peak oil isn't about oil running out. It's about the rate of production going into decline and the economy struggling to handle extreme oil price volatility.
- roc 17y ago
  Patents are only granted on specific implementations, not ideas. So, if granted, it wouldn't be a patent on any better extraction method, but only on their particular method of increasing efficiency. (say, the use of a particular additive in the slurry or what-have-you)

mhartl 17y ago

These people need to stop talking and start buying oil futures.

billswift 17y ago
They aren't TOTAL idiots; they learned their lesson from Ehrlich's bet with Julian Simon.
- mahmud 17y ago
  http://www.TOTAL.com/ http://www.TOTAL.com/
bioweek 17y ago
Is there any way for the common man to do this? It seems like a pretty sure bet that oil will be more expensive in five years.
- danteembermage 17y ago
  There's a whole boatload of oil based Exchange Traded Funds: http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/oil-price-etfs.html http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/oil-price-etfs.ht... I've never done this, but I think they should be available to purchase through an online broker like Scottrade, etrade, etc.
- mhartl 17y ago
  There are ETFs (exchange-traded funds) called OIL and USO which track the price of oil and oil futures. You can buy them through, e.g., Scottrade, the same way you buy stocks. Or you could just buy stock directly in oil companies, which would certainly expose you to the future price of oil. It may seem like a sure bet that oil prices will rise, but the return would have to compensate you for (a) the opportunity cost and (b) the risk that you're wrong. Peak oil alarmists imply that the current prices don't accurately reflect future scarcity, so they should be able to make a killing in the oil markets and encourage conservation (by making current oil more expensive) at the same time. But if they don't have the confidence to put their money where their mouth is, they really should have the good sense to shut up already. N.B. I do know some peak oil types who are long oil, and I respect them greatly for it.

ryandvm 17y ago

Nice graph. Everything going swimmingly - until tomorrow, when the sky falls.

camccann 17y ago
If you're talking about the dark blue part of the graph, that represents currently active oil fields only, so of course it's going to drop starting the day after the graph was made because it's defined to exclude new production capacity! The light blue apparently represents the expected production from known but untapped fields, so the dark and light blue combined represent current known oil reserves, and don't show any spurious drops.

tome 17y ago

Interesting timing with Copenhagen looming. I'm usually the first person to talk about the potential risks of the oil crisis, but I think think this article is geared more towards the climate change talks than a serious analysis of the oil issues.

ivankirigin 17y ago

There is no such thing as running out of oil. There is only oil becoming more expensive to extract than alternatives.

camccann 17y ago
Trivially true, but not necessarily helpful. No one is suggesting that dwindling oil supply means we'll be going back to pre-industrial technology levels (well, no one sane, at least). The concern is potential economic shocks due to large increases in the relative price of oil and, by extension, oil-derived goods including anything that requires long-distance shipping. It's a legitimate concern, but probably overblown. With a sufficient range of alternatives, the inevitable price increases are likely to be gradual and steady, giving plenty of time to adjust. Anybody heavily dependent on cheap transportation is probably still screwed in the mid-to-long term, but at least they'll have time to fail gracefully rather than crash and burn overnight.
- bokonist 17y ago
  There is no guarantee that the price increases will be gradual. If exporters of oil all have low time preference (which they do), then plummet could come very suddenly as wells start to go dry with no replacements (eg, an 80% drop off over a ten year period). There is also no guaranteed that we'll be able to find a suitable replacement. Only nuclear has anything close to the EREOI of oil, and nuclear plants takes a lot of time to build.
  - abalashov 17y ago
    nuclear plants takes a lot of time to build. And a lot of oil to build. And you can't put nuclear reactors in cars or planes. And you can't make plastics and most industrial inputs out of nuclear energy.
prodigal_erik 17y ago
There is also oil which requires more energy to extract than it contains (beyond which you'd only do it because you need some energy stored in liquid form).

tptacek 17y ago

... according to The Guardian's anonymous source. Flagged.