5 ms·

Interesting to get the 1985 perspective. Some thoughts: - the industry always announces things way too early even if they are good ideas (this article was pret

Interesting to get the 1985 perspective. Some thoughts: - the industry always announces things way too early even if they are good ideas (this article was pretty much right about the next ~10 years) - the price always comes down - "unforeseen consequences" (the rise of even more portable devices - phones and tablets) went on to succeed even the laptop, which was probably impossible to predict at the time. One technology revolution is debatable, but two seems to be beyond anyone to anticipate.

funkyy 12y ago
>went on to succeed even the laptop Maybe if you are using your laptop/tablet just for casual games and checking Facebook/Email. As a person working on my laptop 6-8 hours a day I cant imagine how long it would take me to do the same on tablet. Tablet/Phone can be a support to Laptop, that's it.
- vezzy-fnord 12y ago
  Tablets and phones won't usurp the laptop until they become self-hosting. All classes between mainframes, minicomputers, microcomputers and ultimately PCs underwent this vitally important cycle.
  - marvy 12y ago
    If I take my tablet and plug in a big screen and keyboard, is it self-hosting as long as the compiler is running on the device?
    - alextgordon 12y ago
      At that point you might as well just carry around a USB flash drive. The "computer" is the screen. People buy tablets and laptops because it's a portable screen (that incidentally has a computer inside). They want to be able to take their screen to a hotel room, airport, cafe, etc.
      - deleted 12y ago
        [deleted]
      - marvy 12y ago
        Then I think it will take a long time before we have self-hosting tablets, and we may never get self-hosting phones.
_delirium 12y ago
I would've even said ~15 years. I don't think I saw a laptop computer IRL until 2001-02 or so, despite living in an upper-middle-class part of the USA. When I entered undergrad in 2000 I'm pretty sure I had never seen one in person. They started getting common a few years later though.
- mturmon 12y ago
  I had a PowerBook 2300c with a dock in 1995 (10 year mark) that was very sweet. I used to stuff it in my bike pannier and take it back and forth between work and home. Color screen, MacOS 9.1. Not completely different from my current setup, with a laptop plus docking station.
- rgbrenner 12y ago
  They were already quite popular by 2000. In 2000 laptops were 25% of computer sales (went to 54% in 2003). http://www.geek.com/chips/laptop-sales-exceeded-desktop-sales-in-may-552696/ http://www.geek.com/chips/laptop-sales-exceeded-desktop-sale...
  - _delirium 12y ago
    Interesting! Unless my memory fails me, I don't remember having seen one until college (which I started in 2000), except on TV or in movies. And even then it was rare; not many college students prior to ~2002-03 had laptops. Wonder why not. I wonder what the figures would look like if you separated business and private sales?
    - shouldbdan 12y ago
      I got my first laptop in 2003, when I went to college. I went to a lame state school, nothing fancy smancy, and it wasn't an uncommon thing at all to have a laptop. I didn't feel specially privileged, and I remember a number of people that had them. One of the wealthier kids in my high school even had a laptop/tablet hybrid thing a couple years before that -- one of those early ones that had a full version of Windows and a stylus.

funkyy 12y ago

>went on to succeed even the laptop Maybe if you are using your laptop/tablet just for casual games and checking Facebook/Email. As a person working on my laptop 6-8 hours a day I cant imagine how long it would take me to do the same on tablet. Tablet/Phone can be a support to Laptop, that's it.

vezzy-fnord 12y ago
Tablets and phones won't usurp the laptop until they become self-hosting. All classes between mainframes, minicomputers, microcomputers and ultimately PCs underwent this vitally important cycle.
- marvy 12y ago
  If I take my tablet and plug in a big screen and keyboard, is it self-hosting as long as the compiler is running on the device?
  - alextgordon 12y ago
    At that point you might as well just carry around a USB flash drive. The "computer" is the screen. People buy tablets and laptops because it's a portable screen (that incidentally has a computer inside). They want to be able to take their screen to a hotel room, airport, cafe, etc.
    - deleted 12y ago
      [deleted]
    - marvy 12y ago
      Then I think it will take a long time before we have self-hosting tablets, and we may never get self-hosting phones.

_delirium 12y ago

I would've even said ~15 years. I don't think I saw a laptop computer IRL until 2001-02 or so, despite living in an upper-middle-class part of the USA. When I entered undergrad in 2000 I'm pretty sure I had never seen one in person. They started getting common a few years later though.

mturmon 12y ago
I had a PowerBook 2300c with a dock in 1995 (10 year mark) that was very sweet. I used to stuff it in my bike pannier and take it back and forth between work and home. Color screen, MacOS 9.1. Not completely different from my current setup, with a laptop plus docking station.
rgbrenner 12y ago
They were already quite popular by 2000. In 2000 laptops were 25% of computer sales (went to 54% in 2003). http://www.geek.com/chips/laptop-sales-exceeded-desktop-sales-in-may-552696/ http://www.geek.com/chips/laptop-sales-exceeded-desktop-sale...
- _delirium 12y ago
  Interesting! Unless my memory fails me, I don't remember having seen one until college (which I started in 2000), except on TV or in movies. And even then it was rare; not many college students prior to ~2002-03 had laptops. Wonder why not. I wonder what the figures would look like if you separated business and private sales?
  - shouldbdan 12y ago
    I got my first laptop in 2003, when I went to college. I went to a lame state school, nothing fancy smancy, and it wasn't an uncommon thing at all to have a laptop. I didn't feel specially privileged, and I remember a number of people that had them. One of the wealthier kids in my high school even had a laptop/tablet hybrid thing a couple years before that -- one of those early ones that had a full version of Windows and a stylus.