All the guessing about where AGI/ASI will lead reminds me of nuclear weapons and MAD. There were those who guessed tactical nuclear weapons could be used agains

All the guessing about where AGI/ASI will lead reminds me of nuclear weapons and MAD. There were those who guessed tactical nuclear weapons could be used against military targets without necessitating total war. We may be guessing for a long time because no one needs to run the experiment on Earth. We can destroy military targets just fine without nukes. Nuclear powers fight small proxy wars against each but so far no war made the other side desperate enough to consider nukes. We may be guessing with ASI hundreds of years after we have the computing power to make one. No one in their right mind would try an experiment beyond a certain magnitude and duration, just as we do with nukes. And ordinary people won't have unchecked access to computing power that could make one, even if we could easily provide it.