5 ms·

There are plenty of well documented cases of people who are innocent pleading guilty to lesser charges because regardless of innocence, there's still a good cha

by CHY872 12y ago

There are plenty of well documented cases of people who are innocent pleading guilty to lesser charges because regardless of innocence, there's still a good chance that they'll lose in front of a jury. Say the prosecutor offers you 6 months for a plea, or 3 years in jail if it goes to court. Unless you can place odds of winning at 85%+, even the rational would take the plea. Chances are, most of the people who face such deals are poor, probably not particularly clever and will have terrible lawyers. So the plea looks increasingly the best choice, even if they didn't do the crime, or even if only a few of the charges will be able to stick.

digi_owl 12y ago
Never mind that virtually nobody is "rational" in the game theory sense. As such, people will go for the sure thing even if they have high odds of winning. We are wired to be risk adverse to the extreme.
- UnoriginalGuy 12y ago
  Define "winning." Is this what you mean: - Get arrested. Lose your job. - Spend 3-12 months in jail awaiting trial. - Spend $50,000-100,000 on lawyers and legal fees. - Spend another 1-3 months in jail during the trial stages. - Get found "innocent." - Get release only to find that the local TV shows splashed your mugshot all over the TV related to whatever crime you're accused, reputation ruined, you have to move. So now you're destitute, homeless, jobless, and lost all told two years of your life. But at least you "won" the trial. Big win that...
  - ecspike 12y ago
    Your mugshot went on page one. News of your exoneration was buried on page 10.
  - rprospero 12y ago
    > Get found "innocent" When I was younger, a local judge came to visit my Boy Scout troop and discuss the justice system. I don't remember what question I asked him, partially because he never answered it. The answer never came because I touched on an incredibly sensitive pet peeve of his - defendants are never found "innocent". They are merely found "not guilty". He went on to explain that the court can't find you innocent, because no one who goes to court is innocent. You "obviously" had made some mistakes with your life if you were on trial in his court room. His duty was to decide if you deserved to go to prison for those mistakes. It was a long time ago, so I only remember bits and pieces of the other parts of his lecture. The part where he talked about how things went so much more smoothly and quickly when he could talk to the defendant directly without his lawyer still sticks in my mind.
    - digi_owl 12y ago
      And here i thought the basic concept was "innocent until proven guilty"...
      - sokoloff 12y ago
        Those two concepts follow each other. The presumption of innocence combined with the "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of proof means that, in a wide variety of criminal cases, the defendant is quite possibly or even very likely guilty but there is still reasonable doubt. That means that the finding is necessarily something we call "not guilty," as that's the literal finding of the court. We do not find you guilty and this matter is closed. It is not a finding of innocence and so is not reported as such. Simplistically, compare the difference in the NFL replay system of "the ruling on the field is confirmed" vs "the ruling on the field stands". The latter is the gray area and both are reported as "not guilty" in the criminal system (in the US).
tome 12y ago
> cases of people who are innocent pleading guilty to lesser charges because regardless of innocence, there's still a good chance that they'll lose In that case the plea bargin looks like it helps society, not hurts.

by CHY872 12y ago

digi_owl 12y ago

Never mind that virtually nobody is "rational" in the game theory sense. As such, people will go for the sure thing even if they have high odds of winning. We are wired to be risk adverse to the extreme.

UnoriginalGuy 12y ago
Define "winning." Is this what you mean: - Get arrested. Lose your job. - Spend 3-12 months in jail awaiting trial. - Spend $50,000-100,000 on lawyers and legal fees. - Spend another 1-3 months in jail during the trial stages. - Get found "innocent." - Get release only to find that the local TV shows splashed your mugshot all over the TV related to whatever crime you're accused, reputation ruined, you have to move. So now you're destitute, homeless, jobless, and lost all told two years of your life. But at least you "won" the trial. Big win that...
- ecspike 12y ago
  Your mugshot went on page one. News of your exoneration was buried on page 10.
- rprospero 12y ago
  > Get found "innocent" When I was younger, a local judge came to visit my Boy Scout troop and discuss the justice system. I don't remember what question I asked him, partially because he never answered it. The answer never came because I touched on an incredibly sensitive pet peeve of his - defendants are never found "innocent". They are merely found "not guilty". He went on to explain that the court can't find you innocent, because no one who goes to court is innocent. You "obviously" had made some mistakes with your life if you were on trial in his court room. His duty was to decide if you deserved to go to prison for those mistakes. It was a long time ago, so I only remember bits and pieces of the other parts of his lecture. The part where he talked about how things went so much more smoothly and quickly when he could talk to the defendant directly without his lawyer still sticks in my mind.
  - digi_owl 12y ago
    And here i thought the basic concept was "innocent until proven guilty"...
    - sokoloff 12y ago
      Those two concepts follow each other. The presumption of innocence combined with the "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of proof means that, in a wide variety of criminal cases, the defendant is quite possibly or even very likely guilty but there is still reasonable doubt. That means that the finding is necessarily something we call "not guilty," as that's the literal finding of the court. We do not find you guilty and this matter is closed. It is not a finding of innocence and so is not reported as such. Simplistically, compare the difference in the NFL replay system of "the ruling on the field is confirmed" vs "the ruling on the field stands". The latter is the gray area and both are reported as "not guilty" in the criminal system (in the US).

tome 12y ago

> cases of people who are innocent pleading guilty to lesser charges because regardless of innocence, there's still a good chance that they'll lose In that case the plea bargin looks like it helps society, not hurts.